Commanders vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction
The banged-up 2-1 Washington Commanders head south to take on the 1-2 Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon at 1 p.m. ET.
Marcus Mariota, making his first start since 2022, filled in admirably for the injured Jayden Daniels in leading the Commanders to a 41-24 triumph at home over the Las Vegas Raiders last week.
Atlanta was the worst-looking team in Week 3, getting blanked on the road, 30-0, against the formerly winless Carolina Panthers. This could be a defining week for first-year starter Michael Penix Jr., who was ineffective and then benched in favour of Kirk Cousins against the Panthers.
The Commanders are slim one-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 45.0.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Commanders are 2-1 against the spread this season, including 2-0 ATS as a favourite. They are, however, 0-1 ATS on the road. Atlanta is 1-2 against the spread, including 0-1 ATS at home.
Washington has won four straight in this series, including a 30-24 overtime victory at home last season. They are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven contests with the Falcons.
Atlanta has played to the under in each of its three games, while Washington has played to the under in two of its games.
Washington Commanders
All eyes are pointed at Daniels, last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. He injured his left knee in the Commanders’ Week 2 loss at the Green Bay Packers. After not practicing at all last week, coach Dan Quinn made the decision to rest him against the Raiders.
It helps that Mariota looks made for this offence. He threw for 207 yards, rushed for 40, and accounted for two touchdowns, although he did turn the ball over once on a fumble. If Daniels does return, that could make Washington even bigger favourites.
Atlanta Falcons
The quarterback position for the Falcons will be closely watched, but not for injury purposes. Penix Jr. is the team’s future, but Atlanta also has a $180 million quarterback on the bench. Cousins’ appearance late in the shutout loss to Carolina was simply to avoid any injuries to Penix Jr., according to coach Raheem Morris.
But a spark is needed for an Atlanta team that is second-to-last in the league in scoring at 14 points a game. Last week, the Falcons turned the ball over three times, including a pick-six, and missed two field goals. Something drastically needs to change.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Commanders vs. Falcons?
With the rest of the offence stuck in the mud, running back Bijan Robinson needs to again be a dual threat after accounting for 111 total yards. Atlanta’s receiving game has been so sparse that wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard was fired this week.
Even if Mariota is still under centre, the Commanders still look solid offensively after racking up more than 200 yards and three touchdowns last week. The run-by-committee approach was effective last week for Washington, but Atlanta’s defence is not the problem. They are second in the league in total yards allowed at just 227.3 per game.
For the Commanders to come out of Atlanta as winners, they will need to find holes in the Falcons’ top-ranked pass defence and top-10 rush defence. Look for Penix Jr. to rebound at home and for the defence to remain stout as the Falcons pull off a mild 21-17 upset.
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