Colts vs. Steelers Point Spread: NFL Week 9 Odds, Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts head to Pittsburgh for a Week 9 matchup against the Steelers this Sunday in one the most intriguing game on the 1 p.m. ET slate.
Indy sits atop the AFC with a 7-1 record and has a chance to cash its preseason win total, which was 7.5. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh needs a big win, as the Steelers have a 4-3 record. Although they sit atop the AFC North, they’ve suffered two straight defeats.
Aaron Rodgers and company need to play at an elite level if they want to compete with this Colts offence, so let’s dive into both teams’ outlooks and a few betting trends as we approach kickoff.
Indianapolis is a 3-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 50.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Colts have been electric on offence, leading the NFL in yards (385.3) and points per game (33.8). With a total of 50.5, the second-highest among Sunday’s early games, this matchup should deliver points. The over has hit in three straight for Indy and in five of seven for Pittsburgh.
Against the spread, the Colts are 6-2, while the Steelers sit at 3-4. In touchdown markets, Jonathan Taylor (-250) leads the NFL with 12 rushing TDs, Tyler Warren (+135) offers value against a defence that struggles vs TEs, and Jaylen Warren (+110) is the Steelers’ best bet to score.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are the best story in the NFL right now, and Daniel Jones has played at an elite level all season. Indy’s playcaller has 2,062 passing yards, 13 TDs, and three INTs. He’s also been elite under pressure, as he’s had 92 dropbacks while facing pressure this season and has posted a 61.6 per cent completion rate. Only Dak Prescott has been better against pressure. This will be key against Pittsburgh because the Steelers blitz at the third-highest rate in the league.
The one area where the Colts can be exploited is on defence. They’re giving up 345.1 yards per game (24th in the NFL) and 252.0 passing yards per contest (29th in the NFL). Now, it’s worth noting that this is likely due to them being ahead in games, causing their opponents to throw more often, but it’s still significant when facing an Aaron Rodgers offence.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are reeling after back-to-back primetime losses to the Bengals and Packers. Their defence has been the main problem, allowing 386 yards per game (30th in the NFL) and 25 points per game (22nd). The secondary has struggled badly, giving up a league-worst 273.3 passing yards per game, though the addition of safety Kyle Dugger from New England in a trade this week should provide a boost.
Offensively, Pittsburgh’s been inconsistent — topping 30 points in some weeks but stalling in others. To beat the Colts, the Steelers need an early lead to neutralize Indy’s run-heavy attack. Still, Mike Tomlin thrives as an underdog after a loss, going 25-15 ATS in those spots and 12-4 ATS as a home dog after a defeat. Expect the Steelers to show up prepared on Sunday.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Colts vs. Steelers?
The casual fan might see the Colts as three-point favourites against a 4-3 Steelers squad and feel that is the easy pick. However, Pittsburgh is close to a must-win situation, and I expect Aaron Rodgers to come out slinging after last week’s SNF loss to Green Bay. Therefore, I’ll back the Black and Gold to pull off an upset.
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