Colts vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 10 Odds, Prediction
The Patriots were stunned last week when a late interception sealed a 20-17 loss against Washington. New England dropped to 2-7 for the first time since Bill Belichick’s first season as head coach in 2000. The Colts used two pick-6’s to down Carolina 27-13 last week as they improved to 4-5 on the season.
Indy opened as a slim 1.5-point favourite to win over the Pats on the NFL odds, while the total sits at 43.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
This has been all New England in recent years, with the Patriots winning nine of their last 10 games against Indianapolis. The teams’ Week 9 meeting last year ended in a 26-3 home win for New England. It was a dominant win for the Pats, who recorded nine sacks in the game.
Indy is a solid 3-1 straight up on the road this season, although travelling to Germany will obviously be a tougher test. They’re 5-4 against the spread overall, but they’ve failed to cover in six of their last eight games against New England. The Colts have hit the Over in six of nine games this season.
The Patriots are off to their worst start in Belichick’s tenure and they come into Week 10 with losses in five of their last six games. They’ve also been a terrible cover option, going 2-7 ATS for the season and 2-11 ATS dating back to last year. Low scoring games have been a trend for New England in 2023, with the total going Under in six of their last eight contests.
Indianapolis Colts
Cornerback Kenny Moore was the hero for the Colts last week, returning two Bryce Young interceptions for touchdowns. Moore is the first players in franchise history with two pick-6’s in the same game and just the second to do it in the NFL over the last 11 years. Indy intercepted Young three times and sacked him four times. Gardner Minshew started at quarterback for the Colts, finishing with 127 passing yards and a touchdown. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 47 yards and added 22 receiving yards while catching a touchdown pass.
The biggest injury loss for Indianapolis remains rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. The fourth overall pick in last year’s draft suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5 against Tennessee. Richardson finished the year with a 2-2 record, throwing for 577 yards, three TDs and an interception while running for another 136 yards and four TDs on the ground. The Colts also saw a trio of players leave last week’s game in Carolina early, including cornerback Tony Brown (concussion), receiver Josh Downs (knee) and tight end Drew Ogletree (foot).
New England Patriots
Last week’s loss against Washington dropped the Patriots to 0-5 in non-divisional games this season, the only team in the NFL without a win outside of their division. Trailing 20-17 late in the fourth quarter, Mac Jones’ pass intended for JuJu Smith-Schuster was picked off by Jartavius Martin, sealing the win for the Commanders. Jones finished the day with 220 passing yards and a touchdown. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson had a solid outing for New England, putting up 87 rushing yards and a touchdown on nine carries.
A big issue for the Patriots right now is how thin they are at receiver. Kendrick Bourne is out for the season with a knee injury and DeVante Parker’s status is up in the air after missing last week’s game due to a concussion he suffered Week 8 against Miami. Those injuries are especially concerning given Jones has thrown a league-high nine interceptions this season compared to just 10 touchdown passes.
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