The Indianapolis Colts are one win a way from clinching a playoff spot, but standing in the way trying to play spoiler is the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Indy is in this position thanks to a disappointing 23-30 home loss to the Raiders last week.  The Jags were absolutely crushed 50-10 on the road in New England in Week 17 and now sit one loss away from finishing dead last in the NFL and securing the first overall pick in the draft for the second year in a row.

With the importance of this game, the Colts have jumped to 15.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 44.0.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Indianapolis got a scare at home against the Jaguars in Week 10, scraping out a 23-17 win.  Carson Wentz had 180 passing yards for the Colts, while Trevor Lawrence threw for 162 yards.  Neither quarterback threw a touchdown or interception.  Jonathan Taylor (+1000 to win MVP) rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown in the win.

Indy has been solid on the road this season, going 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread outside of Lucas Oil Stadium.  They’re 10-6 ATS overall, but the real concern is their 1-11-1 record ATS in their last 13 games against Jacksonville.  The total has gone Under in four of the Colts’ last five games.

It’s been another rough year in Jacksonville as they’ve dropped eight straight games and haven’t covered in seven.  They’re an atrocious 4-12 ATS overall and have only covered twice at home this year.  The total has gone Under in 11 of the Jaguars’ last 15 games.

Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis’ star running back, Taylor, finished with 108 yards and a touchdown last week, but it wasn’t enough to help the Colts win, despite coming in as 8.5-point favourites.  Taylor leads the NFL with 1,734 rushing yards and 18 rushing TDs, breaking Edgerrin James’ single-season franchise record of 1,709 receiving yards.  Wentz, who spent the first part of last week in COVID protocols, finished with 148 passing yards and a touchdown.  Among starting quarterbacks, Wentz ranks outside the top 10 in most major statistical categories and has averaged just 168.7 passing yards per game over his last seven games.  It’s as simple as it gets for the Colts this week: win or go home.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville was crushed by the Patriots last week for their 17th consecutive loss.  Lawrence completed 17 of 27 passing attempts for 193 yards and his first touchdown in five games.  He was picked off three times, but it’s tough to completely blame Lawrence for the rough outing.  The Jaguars were missing 13 players, including eight starters, due to COVID protocols.  Three starting offensive linemen, left tackle Cam Robinson, centre Brandon Linder and guard Ben Bartch missed the game along with five backups.  Lawrence, last year’s first overall pick, is up to 3,418 passing yards on the season with 10 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.  There’s really no incentive for Jacksonville to win this game.  Pride is great, but locking up the first overall pick is better.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Colts vs. Jaguars?