Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
Kansas City is a 3.5-point favourite on the NFL odds with a total of 45.5 points.
Monday Night Football Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Sometimes, even the best NFL scouts can be wrong on a college quarterback. Trevor Lawrence was one of the most touted recruits ever out of high school and then had an amazing college career at Clemson, winning everything but a Heisman Trophy. He was considered one of the best NFL prospects to enter in years at the position when Lawerence was picked No. 1 overall in 2021 by Jacksonville. He has underachieved as a pro so far.
Patrick Mahomes was not a touted prospect out of high school when he landed at Texas Tech and considered a bit of a gamble as the No. 10 overall pick in 2017 by Kansas City. Mahomes already has three Super Bowl rings, two regular-season MVPs and is an all-timer. So you just never know.
Not out of the question this is a potential playoff preview this winter. The Chiefs might not win the AFC West for once – the Chargers look very good and lead the division — and take a wild-card route to the post-season. K.C. is -425 to return to the playoffs. Jacksonville could easily win the AFC South, maybe the league’s worst overall division, and is a +130 second-favourite behind Indianapolis (+100).
Including one playoff game, Kansas City leads the all-time series 10-6 and has won the past eight. They last met Week 2 in 2023 in Florida and the Chiefs won 17-9.
Kansas City Chiefs
Can you call a game in Week 4 a must win? Just a single team to start 1-3 has won a Super Bowl and that was the 2001 New England Patriots. Thus, Kansas City at 1-2 was staring at a must win Sunday for the most part and responded with a 37-20 rout of visiting Baltimore. That was the best the Chiefs have looked offensively in a long time, scoring their most points since Sept. 24, 2023. The return of speedster wideout Xavier Worthy, hurt early in Week 1, made a major difference as he not only led the team with 83 yards receiving but also with 38 yards rushing.
Patrick Mahomes looked in his MVP prime, completing passes to nine teammates and throwing for 270 yards and four touchdowns without committing a turnover. It was his first four-TD game since 2023. Mahomes became the fastest QB in NFL history to 250 career TD passes, doing it in his 116th game. The defence held Baltimore – the league’s top-scoring offence entering the game – to just 10 points across its six first-half possessions. Kansas City is 6-12 ATS in its past 18 overall.
Jacksonville Jaguars
A lot of NFL experts, myself included, expected a major bounce-back season in 2025 for the Jaguars and so far that has been the case at 3-1 (for the first time since 2018) following a 26-21 upset win in San Francisco on Sunday. The defence forced four turnovers and now Jacksonville has a league-best 13 takeaways, including at least three in each game, the most by any team through four games since Cleveland in 2018. The Jags had an NFL-low nine takeaways last season. The team’s first three takeaways Sunday led to 17 points and helped the Jaguars maintain the lead for all but 8:52.
QB Trevor Lawrence really hasn’t gotten going yet but didn’t throw a pick Sunday for the first time this season. The offence converted just 4 of 14 third downs and managed 96 total yards in the second half. Defensive end and former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker exited the game and did not return after suffering a wrist injury in the first half. Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its past six.
KC
JAC