Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds: Super Bowl 59 Rematch Trends and Prop Picks
The Chiefs obviously won that and history hints they will again Sunday as slight favourites on the NFL odds. We break down some of our favourite props for the big game.
Rematch Trends Favour Chiefs
Two years ago in Super Bowl 57 outside Phoenix, also played in a dome like Sunday’s game in New Orleans, the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35 in the third-highest-scoring SB ever. Fairly recent rematches in the big games are somewhat rare as Kansas City tries to become the first team to ever win three straight Super Bowls.
This will mark the fifth time in SB history when the same two teams face off twice in a five-year span – and all four times the first winner won the rematch. Three of those four were decided by four points or fewer. That includes last year’s Super Bowl, a 25-22 Kansas City win over San Francisco in overtime. That was a rematch of the SB following the 2019 season, which the Chiefs won over the Niners.
Sunday also will mark the fourth time that two starting QBs – Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts — face off in multiple Super Bowls. The winner of the first game won the first three rematches: Terry Bradshaw and Pittsburgh over Roger Staubach and Dallas; Troy Aikman and Dallas over Jim Kelly and Buffalo; and Eli Manning and the New York Giants over Tom Brady and New England – Brady’s only two Super Bowl losses.
Rather strangely, the team that enters the Super Bowl with the better record is 1-16 ATS in the big game since 2003, not counting Super Bowls that featured two teams with the same record. The Chiefs had the better regular-season record, and I do like Philadelphia on Sunday.
The largest lead in Super Bowl 57 was 10 points by the Eagles at halftime/entering the third. The over-under for largest lead in this one is 13.5 (both -115), and we lean under. Both teams scored a touchdown on their first drive. That both score on their opening drive Sunday is +400, and I can’t recommend that. Both getting at least one first down on their first drive is -170 with no at +115. No is decent value there. That neither team gets a first down in its first drive is yes-only at +775.
Don’t forget to download our Super Bowl 49 Party Prop Sheet!
Gatorade, First Scorer & Octopus Odds
I’m not sure who came up with the color of Gatorade poured on the winning head coach prop, but it’s incredibly popular. Purple is the +225 favourite and that has been the winning choice in Kansas City’s past two SB wins – it was orange in the first title under Mahomes following the 2019 season. I will go with yellow/green/lime at +250 simply as you get a few options and the last time the Eagles won the SB following the 2018 season, it was yellow but Philly’s primary colour is green.
Are you aware of what an NFL octopus is? That’s a fairly new term and refers to a player scoring a touchdown and then the same player immediately converting the 2-point PAT for eight total points, hence the octopus moniker. That a player will get one Sunday is +1400 with no at -5000.
At those odds for yes, might as well play a little because Hurts had the first-ever Super Bowl octopus two years ago. Philadelphia tends to go for 2-point tries more than any club. Tailback Saquon Barkley, my MVP pick at +240, also is very capable of an octopus.
There were two 1-yard TD runs in Super Bowl 57, one from Hurts for the game’s first score and one by Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco. So I’d lean under 1.5 yards on that prop but also lean Barkley at +180 for first Eagles TD scorer. He has done that a team-high six times this season, one more than Hurts.
