The No. 4 Houston Texans earned a home playoff game after winning the AFC South division with a 10-7 record this season. It’s the No. 5 L.A. Chargers, however, who are the hotter team after ending the regular season on a three-game win streak.

The Chargers are three-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 42.5.

If you’re looking for player props, you can also check out our player props picks for Chargers vs. Texans.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

These teams haven’t met since Week 4 of the 2022 season. L.A. won that game 34-24 in Houston behind Justin Herbert’s 340 passing yards and two TDs. Davis Mills, who will backup C.J. Stroud on Saturday, countered with 246 passing yards, two TDs and two interceptions for the Texans.

The Chargers are the hotter teams with eight wins in their last 11 games. On the flip side, Houston has struggled against AFC West opponents, dropping five of their last six games against the division.

L.A. was an absolute dream for bettors during the regular season, finishing tied with Detroit and Denver for the best cover record in the NFL at 12-5 ATS (70.6 per cent). The Texans finished in the bottom half of the league at 7-8-2 ATS (46.7 per cent). It’s also worth noting, the Chargers were a sterling 7-2 ATS on the road, while Houston was just 3-4-1 ATS at home.

When it comes to totals betting, both teams played the Under in a majority of their games during the regular season. I like that trend to continue on Saturday for two reasons. First, L.A.’s defence gave up a league-low 17.7 points per game during the regular season. And second, the Texans have one of the worst offensive units in the playoffs, ranking 21st during the regular season in EPA (expected points added) and 31st in success rate per snap.

Los Angeles Chargers

Long playoff runs come from playing your best football at the right time and that’s exactly what the Chargers are doing. L.A. is already playing playoff football after closing out the regular season with a road victory over the Raiders in a must-win game. Defence has played a key role in the team’s success all year and it’s been particularly clutch when it matters. The Chargers allow the lowest touchdown rate inside the red zone (45 per cent) and the fifth-lowest third-down conversion percentage (35.7 per cent).

Justin Herbert was an effective quarterback during the regular season this year, but statistically it was just his fourth-most productive season in five years as an NFL starter. Herbert finished with 3,870 passing yards (ninth in NFL) and 23 passing TDs (12th), both well below his career-highs of 5,014 yards and 38 TDs. I think he does enough to win this game, but don’t expect him to blow the doors off a Houston defence that allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game in the regular season (201.1).

Houston Texans

The Texans benefitted hugely from playing in the terrible AFC South division and really didn’t deserve a home playoff game. Houston’s only victory against a playoff team in the regular season was a home win against Buffalo and that came all the way back in Week 5. This team made the playoffs by finding a way to beat bottom-feeders, but they’ve come up flat against against any halfway decent opponents.

The other major cause for concern is C.J. Stroud’s noticeable sophomore slump. Last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year regressed with 3,727 passing yards, 20 TDs and 12 interceptions after finishing his rookie campaign with 4,108 yards, 23 TDs and five interceptions. Stroud’s Week 17 performance in a 31-2 blowout loss against Baltimore was one of the worst games of his career and I’m staying far away from that sort of negative momentum heading into the playoffs.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chargers vs. Texans?