Chargers vs. Lions Point Spread: NFL Pre-Season Hall-of-Fame Week Odds, Prediction
The sports calendar is turning over another leaf as pre-season NFL action gets underway on Thursday with the Lions and Chargers facing off in the annual Hall of Fame Game from Canton, Ohio.
While some people view pre-season football as a total tossup because of the amount of rookies and backups who will play the majority of the game, there’s actually a lot of value you can get if you look at past pre-season trends. Let’s dive in.
Detroit is a 1.5-point favourite to win on the NFL pre-season odds, with the total set at a modest 32.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Neither head coach in this game is a rookie, so let’s look back at their career pre-season records.
Dan Campbell enters his fourth season in charge of the Lions with a 5-7 record in his pre-season career, although he’s gone 2-1 in each of the last two years.
In five years split between the 49ers and Chargers, Jim Harbaugh has posted an 11-8 pre-season record. That includes a 1-2 record last season, his first career losing pre-season record.
When it comes to the outlook on the season, Detroit is a top Super Bowl contender at +1000 to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy on the NFL futures board. They also have the second-shortest odds to win the NFC at +525 and they are +145 favourites to win the NFC North.
The Chargers sit middle-of-the-pack when it comes to their Super Bowl odds at +2800. L.A. is +1200 to win the AFC, while the have the second-shortest odds to win the competitive AFC West at +300.
If you’re looking for player props, Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs is +1000 to win Offensive Player of the Year, trailing only Saquon Barkley at +500.
Personally, I think there’s good value on Harbaugh to win Coach of the Year at +1500. Justin Herbert took big strides last year under Harbaugh and if the Chargers can somehow shock Kansas City and win the division, Harbaugh should be an easy Coach of the Year contender.
Los Angeles Chargers
I would be shocked if Justin Herbert gets any snaps in this game, which means we’re likely going to see a split between Taylor Heinicke, Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei as the quarterbacks battle for position on the depth chart.
Heinicke struggled last year in pre-season, completing just 20 of 44 pass attempts for 206 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.
Lance got a lot of pre-season action with the Cowboys in 2024 with 113 pass attempts in three games, but he threw five interceptions in Week 3, ironically against the Chargers.
You can likely expect L.A. to run the ball on Thursday. The Chargers have a lot of depth at running back, so expect first round draft pick Omarion Hampton, Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal to get the ball a lot. Najee Harris is still dealing with an eye injury and won’t play.
Detroit Lions
Detroit is in a similar position with a lot of starting jobs already locked up. Jared Goff likely sits this one out, with Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen splitting the game.
The Lions gave Hooker a long look last pre-season. He went 29-of-44 passing for 300 yards with one TD and one interception. Hooker was sacked five times in Week 3 against the Steelers.
Allen appeared in two pre-season games with Pittsburgh in 2024, completing 20 of 28 pass attempts for 261 yards with one TD and one interception.
With running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery unlikely to play, I would expect Detroit to go more pass-heavy under first year offensive coordinator John Morton. Detroit has multiple receivers to evaluate on the depth chart behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, so now’s the time to see what they have.
One side note on the Lions. Detroit’s practices have reportedly been very physical to the point players have been told to tone it down, so I’m expecting them to come out hard in this game. That’s a significant edge in pre-season football.
LAC
DET