Chargers vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 6 Odds, Prediction
The Chargers are in desperate need of a bounce-back win after falling to the Giants and Commanders in consecutive weeks, while the Dolphins are in the midst of a free-fall following a loss to the Carolina Panthers a week ago, dropping their record to 1-4 in the process.
With Los Angeles looking to hold on to first place in the AFC West and the Dolphins hoping to turn their season around, let’s get into our Chargers vs Dolphins predictions for Sunday.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Despite the fact that they’re playing across the country on Sunday, the Chargers are favoured by over a field goal against Miami on the road. With both offences struggling at the moment and dealing with injuries at the line of scrimmage, it’s also not a surprise that this total is in the mid-40s.
The Chargers are 3-2 against the spread this season, while the Dolphins are just 2-3 ATS on the NFL odds. Games involving the Dolphins typically go over the total, with the over cashing in four of five games played to this point.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers dropped a pair of games after getting out to a 3-0 start this season. However, Los Angeles was probably a bit unlucky to lose both of those games, specifically against the Giants. The Chargers had multiple turnovers in that contest, which gave an otherwise neutralized New York offence a couple of extremely short fields.
However, while the Chargers’ offence struggled to block against the defensive fronts of the Giants and Commanders, things should get a bit easier for Justin Herbert and Los Angeles against a Dolphins defence that is bottom 10 in pass DVOA, 31st in EPA per pass and dead-last in success rate allowed. We can expect the Chargers to get up off the mat and perform well on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins
The season has not gone according to plan for the Dolphins thus far, and things could get even worse for Tua Tagovaiola and this offence against a Chargers defence that ranks third in pass DVOA, fifth in success rate allowed and eighth in opponent EPA per play.
Head coach Mike McDaniel has also struggled mightily when stepping up in class during his tenure in Miami, as he holds a 39% cover rate against the spread as an underdog in his career. Couple that with some of the injuries the Dolphins suffered already this season, including a massive season-ending injury to Tyreek Hill back on September 29, and the flailing Miami offence (29th in success rate) could struggle to move the ball consistently in this one.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chargers vs. Dolphins?
This game could go in a number of different directions, especially with how banged up the Chargers are on the offensive line. However, Los Angeles is still clearly the better team as presently constructed, and it doesn’t help Miami’s case that it will be without Hill against a defence that is one of the best in football at limiting explosive plays and minimizing opponents’ success in the red zone. It might not look pretty, but let’s look for the Chargers to take this one by a score in the region of 24-16.
LAC
MIA