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Edgar Chaput
Cardinals vs. Texans Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
Ordinarily, a 2-8 Arizona Cardinals squad would be nothing to bat an eye at. But this isn’t just any Cardinals squad and this week’s opponent is one of the most intriguing in the NFL. QB Kyler Murray is back and led his side to a thrilling 25-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week. The Texans are riding an incredible high after vanquishing the Bengals on the road 30-27. Can they keep it up or is this an infamous letdown game?
It would appear that the NFL odds are a little cautious, placing the Texans as favourites, but only at -4.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Looking at the recent head-to-head meetings between these infrequent rivals, one shocking statistic pops out. In October 2021 the Cardinals were an unfathomable -20.5 favourite versus Houston, who at the time was languishing in a post Deshaun Watson phase. Impressively, Arizona covered, winning 31-5. That was the franchise’s third victory in four tries against the Texas-based outfit.
The Cardinals have certainly not been good moneyline bets this season with a 2-8 record, but with Kyler Murray back under centre you never know. Efforts ATS have been much better, though, judging by the 5-4-1 tally. Even then, given the spruced-up roster, some of those results can be tossed away (plus 13 against the Browns, plus 14.5 against the 49ers).
Houston’s route to get to a 5-4 record against the spread has been as unexpected as its 5-4 tally in the AFC South. They’ve been favoured three times this season yet have not covered any of those spreads. They couldn’t handle the Panthers of all teams, yet have gotten the better of the Steelers, Bengals, and Jaguars.
Arizona Cardinals
This is precisely the sort of team to be wary of as the NFL’s second half evolves. Not because the Cardinals have a good chance of making the playoffs (they don’t) but because they have key players back in the lineup and can play loose.
The Atlanta Falcons found that out in Week 10. The Georgia-based unit entered the contest hoping to work its way into the playoff bubble, but the Cardinals, led by Murray and returning RB James Conner, had the last laugh, winning 25-23 on a last-play field goal. For a defence that’s struggled all season long, they were terrific against Atlanta’s air attack, limiting their opponents to a paltry 70 net passing yards. When they had the ball the Cardinals resembled their old selves. They can move the ball well enough and score some touchdowns even though they have a habit of leaving points on the table on too many drives. TE Trey McBride was Murray’s blanket, catching eight passes for 131 yards.
Houston Texans
If the Houston Texans do make the playoffs and cause damage during meaningful January football, they’ll have a few matches to look back on with pride. At the top of the list for now is the 30-27 victory in Cincinnati thanks to a last-play field kicked by Matt Ammendola, who had been toiling in the XFL.
Are the Texans perfect? No, that’s why they’re only 5-4, but by golly are they fun and talented. To go into Cincy and make the Bengal clearly look like the second-best team on the field for almost three full quarters is a feat unto itself. Houston led 20-7 in the third quarter and looked unstoppable. The Bengals are still the Bengals and fought back to eventually tie it at 27-27, but Houston’s overall performance was stellar.
C.J. Stroud was great, hitting 23 of 39 throws for 356 yards and a TD (there was one ill-advised INT). RB Devin Singletary was a monster, bouldering his way to 150 yards on 30 touches, plus a score. Although WR Noah Brown didn’t score, he corralled seven passes for a whopping 172 yards. The defence even picked off Joe Burrow twice.
ARI
HOU