Buccaneers vs. Saints Point Spread: Divisional Playoffs Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 12, 2021

Sunday evening features a marquee matchup between Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and Drew Brees and the Saints, who are 3-point favourites on the NFL odds.

Tampa Bay
11-5
AT
January 17, 2021, 6:40 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Pointspread +2.5 -112
Moneyline +110
Over / Under o +53.5

51%

Betting Action

49%

Pointspread -2.5 -108
Moneyline -132
Over / Under u +53.5

51%

Betting Action

49%

This game concludes the NFL Divisional Round.

NFL Divisional Playoff Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Both these teams surely will be rooting hard for the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday because if L.A. goes to Green Bay and upsets the Packers, the winner of this matchup would host the NFC title game. Also remember that Super Bowl 55 is held in Tampa next month. The Saints are +250 to win the conference title and +600 to win the Super Bowl, while the Bucs are +270 and +725, respectively.

This should easily the be the highest-rated and most-wagered game of the weekend simply as it’s in the marquee slot on Sunday evening but also because of the Brady vs. Brees star power. They are arguably the best regular-season quarterbacks ever and Brees is widely expected to retire after this season. He’s chasing a second career ring, while Brady is chasing a seventh. Brees is No. 1 all-time in regular-season passing yards and No. 2 in TD throws. Brady leads in touchdown passes and is No. 2 in yards.

Brady has never lost to one opponent three times in a season and looks to avoid that here. His Bucs debut was in New Orleans Week 1 and the Saints prevailed 34-23 as Brady was picked off twice, one returned for a touchdown. In Week 9, Brady played one of the worst games of his career in a 38-3 home loss to the Saints. He threw three picks without a touchdown, while Brees had four TD throws. Tampa set an NFL record for fewest rush attempts with five.

New Orleans is 5-0 against the spread in the past five meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady now has 31 playoff wins as a starting QB in his career, by far the most of any player and probably an unbreakable mark. In fact, Brady beaten 17 different teams in the playoffs and no other QB even has 17 playoff victories overall. Tampa Bay was a 31-23 winner at Washington last Saturday as Brady threw for 381 yards and two scores. The yardage was a career high for the GOAT in a road playoff game and the most in a single playoff game in franchise history. Brady also became the oldest player (43 years, 159 days old) to throw a TD pass in a playoff game. The win was Tampa’s first in the playoffs since following the 2002 season when the franchise won its only Super Bowl.

Tampa Bay lost right guard Alex Cappa to a fractured ankle in the win over Washington. Top running back Ronald Jones missed the game with a quad injury and is questionable for this week. Stellar young linebacker Devin White and defensive lineman Steve McLendon missed the game on the COVID-19 list but both have been activated. The Bucs are 2-5 ATS in their past seven after a win.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints got back two of the NFL’s best offensive players for their home Wild-Card game vs. Chicago on Sunday in running back Alvin Kamara (led league with 21 TDs; was on COVID list) and receiver Michael Thomas (2019 NFL Offensive Player of the Year; was on injured reserve) and had little trouble in a 21-9 win. Brees threw for two scores, Kamara rushed for one and Thomas caught one – his first TD of an injury-plagued season. The New Orleans defence dominated; the Saints never previously allowed fewer than 14 points in a playoff game.

If there’s one concern for the Saints, it’s that usually reliable kicker Will Lutz missed a field goal and has missed four of his past seven. The team did sign veteran kicker Blair Walsh to the practice squad Monday, but that’s most likely simply as potential COVID insurance for Lutz. The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their past eight as favourites.

NFL Playoff Prediction: Who Will Win Bucs vs. Saints?

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