Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid Champions League Preview and Prediction
Arsenal returns to London for the second leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinals against Spanish side Atlético Madrid on Tuesday. The two squads played to a 1-1 draw last week at the Metropolitano Stadium, as Viktor Gyökeres and Julian Alvarez converted from the penalty spot in the 44th and 56th minutes. Overall, the hosts outplayed the English side in the second half, but momentum is now with the Gunners, especially with their home fans behind them.
With a spot in the final on the line, let’s get into my Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid Champions League predictions for Tuesday’s semifinal at the Emirates.
Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid Champions League Odds and Betting Trends
Arsenal are -155 home favourites on the three-way moneyline, and they have -280 odds to qualify. Meanwhile, Atlético Madrid has a +425 price to win in 90 minutes, they have +215 odds to qualify, and the draw sits at +300 on the Champions League odds. The Over/Under is 2.5, and both sides carry identical -110 odds.
Arsenal has seen fewer than three goals in each of their last five UCL contests, and only three of their last 13 UCL home games ended with both teams scoring. They’ll now try to stop an Atlético Madrid team that has scored in 10 of their last 11 UCL road contests. However, the visitors could be playing without top scorer Julian Alvarez, who limped off the field in the first leg and didn’t play in La Liga over the weekend.
Arsenal
For what once looked like a season where Arsenal could bag a quadruple, those dreams quickly ended in the final week of March. Mikel Arteta’s side fell 2-0 to Manchester City in the EFL Cup final before being eliminated by Southampton 2-1 in the FA Cup quarterfinals. Things worsened when City dealt them a 2-1 blow in the EPL, leading to the Citizens becoming the odds-on favourites to win the English Premier League this season. However, Arteta’s men are now showing some fight, as they’ve gone 2-1-0 in three games since that City defeat, most recently beating Fulham 3-0 at the Emirates over the weekend.
Bukayo Saka made his first start since mid-March against Fulham, and the English winger picked up a goal and an assist. Arsenal could also get Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard back, and if they do, they’ll feel as close to full strength as they have in some time. The Gunners haven’t been beaten in the UCL this season (10-3-0), and have lost just once in their last 24 European contests at home (17-6-1). They actually thumped Atlético 4-0 at home in the league phase back in October, and a similar result would be a dream scenario for Arteta.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético is trying to make the UCL final for the first time since 2015/16, and they can fully focus on the Champions League after picking up a 2-0 win in La Liga over the weekend. That victory more or less secured a top-four finish in La Liga for Diego Simeone’s side, and a Champions League trophy would be historic. His squad has won six of the last seven European semifinals they were in, and their last win came against Arsenal in the 2017/18 Europa League.
The biggest worry for Madrid is that they’ve struggled on the road this season and are just 3-1-6 in their last ten road contests. Each of their three UCL road defeats this season came against an English opponent, and Simeone’s squad has lost on six of their last seven trips to England. I do think Alvarez will play in this game, but if he isn’t at 100 per cent health, Madrid will need Antoine Griezmann to step up. 10 of the French attacker’s 14 goals this season have come after the halftime break.
Champions League Prediction: Who Will Win Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid would’ve been in a much better situation if they had won the first leg at home, and this game should be extremely cagey. Arsenal is the more talented team, but Simeone’s team has been here before, while Arteta’s side has continued to fall short. I lean towards backing the Spanish side on the double chance market at +120 odds, but my best bet is on the Under.
I don’t anticipate either team going all out in the first half, and the longer this game remains 0-0, the better Atlético Madrid will feel. I can see them pulling off the upset, but I’ll bet Under 2.5 Total Goals (-110) instead.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Total Goals (-110)
Score Prediction: Arsenal 1 | Atlético Madrid 1