New York and Tampa Bay are both fresh off Week 11 byes as they look to end some ugly losing streaks. The Giants are 0-5 at home this season and they just blew a 20-17 overtime game in Germany against Carolina in Week 10. The Bucs fell 23-20 at home against the Niners two weeks ago and they’ll need to snap their four-game losing streak soon if they want a chance to win the NFC South.

Tampa Bay opened as 3.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 42.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This line moved a full two points with the announcement that the Giants are starting Tommy DeVito this week and demoting Daniel Jones to QB3. The Buccaneers are now favoured by 5.5 points while the total has shrunk to 41.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.

Tampa got the better of the Giants in the last two head-to-heads, but the teams haven’t met in three years when Tom Brady was still slinging the pill for the Bucs. Overall, however, New York has won seven of the last 10 meetings, but they covered just twice in those games.

Speaking of the Giants struggling the cover, they are just 2-7-1 against the spread this season, tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 6-4 ATS in 2024, with covers in their last two games.

These teams trend in opposite directions when it comes to the total. New York has played the Under in seven of 10 games, while Tampa has hit the Over in seven of 10. The Over might be the play on Sunday as six of the last seven head-to-heads between these teams have finished above the number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have lost four straight games, but keep in mind those came against four likely playoff teams in San Francisco, Kansas City, Atlanta and Baltimore. Three of those teams are also legit Super Bowl contenders (the Falcons aren’t going the distance with Kirk Cousins under centre).

Last week’s bye came at a good time as Baker Mayfield likely needed a reset after throwing for a season-low 116 yards against San Francisco. Mayfield, who is averaging 250.5 passing yards per game this season, was also limited to a single passing TD for just the third time this season. A last-second field goal ended the game as Tampa became the only team to suffer three losses this season when tied or leading in the final 15 seconds.

New York Giants

The Giants are so fed up with Daniel Jones, they’re not just benching him, they’re making him the third-string QB behind Tommy DeVito and backup Drew Lock. Jones, who signed a four-year $160 million contract just two years ago, has led New York to a 2-8 record while throwing for no TDs in six of 10 games.

Enter DeVito, who went 3-4 last year after Jones suffered a season-ending ACL injury. DeVito quickly proved he wasn’t the answer in New York, averaging only 122.3 passing yards per game while throwing multiple TDs in a game just twice. Tommy Cutlets lost his final two starts last year by an average of 26 points and I think he’ll get shredded against a Buccaneers defence that ranks in the top half of the NFL in total takeaways.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Buccaneers vs. Giants?