Buccaneers vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 13 Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Dec 02, 2021

Last week's return of Cordarrelle Patterson came at a good time for the Atlanta Falcons, as they'll need all the help they can get against the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

Tampa Bay
13-4
AT
December 05, 2021, 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
7-10
Pointspread -11 -115
Moneyline -550
Over / Under o +51

65%

Betting Action

35%

Pointspread +11 -105
Moneyline +438
Over / Under u +51

65%

Betting Action

35%

We’re headed to the NFC South on Sunday as the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Atlanta to face the second place Falcons.  The Bucs gutted out a 38-31 victory in Indianapolis last week, while Atlanta took out the Jaguars 21-14 in Jacksonville.

Tampa is an 11-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 50.0.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Buccaneers have won the last three meetings between these teams, including a 48-25 decision earlier this season.  With the 11-point spread, it’s worth noting Tampa Bay has only won by more than a touchdown once in their last 13 trips to Atlanta.  High scoring games have been a trend between these teams, with nine of the last 10 games in this head-to-head, including the last seven, hitting the Over.  About 57 per cent of Sports Interactions bettors are taking the Bucs to cover in this one, while 67 per cent are banking on the Over.

Tampa has been a tale of two teams on the road versus at home.  They’re a perfect 5-0 at Raymond James Stadium, but just 3-3 on the road.  The Buccaneers are 5-6 against the spread overall this season, but they’ve only covered in one of their last seven road contests.  The total has gone Under in four of Tampa Bay’s last six games.

The Falcons have struggled at home, dropping six of their last seven games at Mercedes Benz Stadium.  They haven’t been great as a cover option either, going 5-6 ATS overall, including 1-4 ATS at home.  The total has gone Under in four of Atlanta’s last five games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It didn’t originally look good for Tampa last week, as they trailed the Colts by 10 points in the second half before coming from behind to earn the win and cover.  Leonard Fournette‘s big game was the difference maker.  The star running back picked up a career-high four touchdowns on the day, three rushing and one receiving, finishing with 100 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards.  It was Tom Brady‘s lone passing TD of the game.  Brady also threw one interception and finished with 226 passing yards.

The defence was also a big factor last week.  The Bucs forced five turnovers, four of which eventually resulted in points for Tampa.  One area of concern for most of the season has been the health of the secondary.  Tampa Bay saw the two starting cornerbacks from their Super Bowl winning season both go down with injuries earlier in the year.  Carlton Davis (quad) has been out since Week 4, although there’s a good chance he returns against Atlanta.  Sean Murphy-Bunting (elbow), who was injured in the season-opener, returned to the lineup last week and recorded two tackles.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons clearly missed running back Cordarrelle Patterson, who returned last week after dealing with an ankle injury.  Atlanta finished with a season-high 149 rushing yards in the win against Jacksonville, with Patterson recording a career-high 108 rushing yards and two TDs.  The Falcons were blown out by a combined score of 68-3 in the previous two games, so last week’s win was a big bounce-back performance.  Matt Ryan threw for 190 yards, one touchdown and an interception, while rookie tight end Kyle Pitts had just two catches for 26 yards.  Pitts has only had five catches for 55 yards over his last two games and he hasn’t had more than 62 receiving yards in a game since his monster 164-yard performance against Miami in Week 7.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Buccaneers vs. Falcons?

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