Buccaneers vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction
The Buccaneers finished 10-7 last season, including 5-3 on the road, while Atlanta went 8-9 overall and 4-4 at home.
The Falcons swept the season series with the Bucs, winning two tight contests, a 36-30 overtime thriller at home in early October and a 31-26 road win at Tampa Bay just over three weeks later.
The Buccaneers are 2.5-point favourites on the NFL odds, with a current moneyline of -140. Atlanta’s moneyline is currently +118.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Tampa Bay finished 10-8 against the spread last season, but is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against the Falcons. Atlanta had one of the worst ATS records in 2024/25, going 6-10-1, including 1-6-1 in its last eight games. However, the Falcons went 2-0 straight up and against the spread versus Tampa Bay.
Atlanta played to the under 10 times in 17 contests last year, but two of their seven overs came against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay played to the over 12 times in 18 games last season, including its Wild Card loss to the Commanders.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It took four teams and seven seasons, but quarterback Baker Mayfield has revived his career in Tampa Bay. He had a monster campaign last year, throwing for 4,500 yards and leading the NFC with 41 touchdown passes despite missing wide receiver Chris Godwin for 10 games. Mayfield’s 69 TD passes over the last two seasons lead the NFL.
Godwin returns, as does future Hall of Fame wideout Mike Evans. Rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka looked impressive in the preseason.
One of the league’s youngest rosters averaged 29.5 points last season as the franchise set a record with its fifth consecutive playoff appearance.
Atlanta Falcons
A 6-3 start, including the season-sweep over the Bucs, evaporated quickly, resulting in a seventh-straight season without postseason football in Atlanta. Quarterback Kirk Cousins, who signed a four-year, $180 million contract in the 2024 offseason and combined for 785 yards and eight passing touchdowns in the two victories over Tampa Bay, was benched with three games left in the season.
In stepped rookie first-round pick Michael Penix Jr., who showed enough in his brief stint to merit the starting job this fall. He has studs at running back in Bijan Robinson (1,456 yards, 14 TDs) and wide receiver with Drake London (100 receptions, 1,271 yards, 9 TDs).
The defence, which ranked 31st in the NFL with just 31 sacks last season, took big steps to rectify a weak pass rush in the draft. Georgia’s Jalon Walker and Tennessee’s James Pierce were both taken in the first round.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Buccaneers vs. Falcons?
Yes, Tampa Bay has finished atop the NFC South in each of the past four seasons, and the Bucs did set a franchise record with its fifth straight playoff appearance last year. But since the team won Super Bowl 55 with Tom Brady under centre, Tampa Bay has gone 2-4 in the postseason, failing to advance past the divisional round.
Mayfield and his teammates are eager to take that next step, as well as punish Penix Jr. and the Falcons for sweeping last year’s season series.
Look for Tampa Bay to get off on the right foot with a 28-24 road win to start the season.
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