Signed as a free agent during the offseason, Watson’s season debut has been delayed by an 11-week suspension related to his off-field legal woes. Watson takes over the helm of a Browns squad that has stumbled to a 4-7 start, but are coming off a 23-17 win over Tampa Bay. The Texans return after falling 30-15 in Miami last weekend, extending their current straight up losing streak to six games.

The Browns have climbed to 7-point favourites on the NFL odds since opening at -4.5, backed by 82 per cent of sports bettors. The total has also been on the rise, vaulting to 47 after opening at 44.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Sunday afternoon’s matchup at NRG Stadium marks the third meeting in as many seasons between these AFC rivals, and the Browns’ first visit to Houston since 2018. The Browns have earned the win in each of their past two clashes, capped by a decisive 31-21 win in September of last year. However, it is the Texans who have dominated at the sportsbooks when facing Cleveland, covering in nine of 10 matchups since 2005. The Texans have also won outright in each of their past five home dates with Cleveland, and now find themselves hosting the Browns as home underdogs for the first time in franchise history.

The Texans have not enjoyed that sort of success this season. The team is winless in six home dates, and has earned just two wins in 17 home dates since November 2020. However, they enjoy a perfect 4-0 run against the spread when pegged as home dogs by seven or more points, averaging 25.3 points per game over that stretch. The Browns have been equally shaky on the road, losing four straight, but have covered twice during a 3-1 run when listed as favourites by six or more points.

Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson takes over a Browns offence that has particularly struggled on the road. The Browns have averaged just 20 points per game during a four-game road losing streak. And while Jacoby Brissett has been steady under centre, the move to Watson is an obvious upgrade for a team that has trouble generating scoring. Brissett tossed for one or fewer scores in seven of his past eight outings, with the lone exception being the team’s 31-23 loss to Buffalo two weeks ago.

With Watson taking over, receiver Amari Cooper is poised to improve on his checkered performance this season, which has featured four 100-yard outings, as well as four outings with fewer than 45 receiving yards. Indeed, Watson was dominant playing at NRG during his four seasons with the Texans, tossing for 53 scores against just 15 picks in 26 contests, to go along with nine scoring runs, and averaged 334.6 passing yards per game over his final home games as a Texan. However, after being idle since the end of the 2020 NFL season, it remains to be seen how much rust he will have to work through in Sunday’s return to action.

Houston Texans

The Texans would like nothing more than to spoil Watson’s return to the NFL. But to do that, this team must find ways to score. Houston has averaged just 14.7 points per game during its current six-game slide, and just 12.3 points per game over their three most recent home defeats, and now rank dead last in the league with just 15.8 points per game. In addition to sitting the near the bottom of the team stats with just 12 total scoring passes, the Texans have also tossed a league-worst 13 picks.

The ground game has not been any better, generating just five total touchdowns, second worst in the league. And things have gotten worse as the season has progressed, with the Texans averaging just 179.5 total yards over their past two games. In the wake of a dismal performance two weeks ago against Washington, Davis Mills lost the starting quarterback job to Kyle Allen, who tossed for 215 yards and one score against two picks in last week’s loss to the Dolphins.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Browns vs. Texans?