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Edgar Chaput
Browns vs. Saints Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
The 2024 campaign has been anything but easy for the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints. Their Week 11 date has a ring of irony to it. Both sides expected to make good on what appeared to be decent rosters this season. Not only has that not transpired, but former Saints QB Jameis Winston now leads the Browns into battle to face his former club.
Our NFL odds give the host Saints a narrow -1 edge. The over-under is set at 44.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Cleveland and New Orleans are infrequent foes since they contend in opposite conferences. The past 18 years have seen them step onto the field at the same time only five times. The Saints have a 3-2 edge over that span, which includes wins in the last two meetings. The most recent was in 2022 when the Saints defeated the Browns in Cleveland, 17-10.
There isn’t much to say other than that the Browns are among the worst teams in the league. Granted, their defence is not at the bottom of the rankings, but it’s nothing to write home about either. It coughs up 23.7 points per game, good for only 21st. The bigger issue is the offence, which musters only 16.4 points a week, which ranks fourth worst. It comes as no surprise that Cleveland is only 3-6 ATS. For that matter, the over has the same record.
One wonders if the criticism should be as harsh for New Orleans. Not that the Saints are a superb operation compared to the Browns (they fired their head coach after Week 9), but the injury to QB Derek Carr certainly didn’t help. The defence is worse than Cleveland’s, conceding 24.6 points per outing. A 4-6 ATS record doesn’t confidence inspire betters either.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns enjoyed a bye in Week 10. When they were last seen in action, the Los Angeles Chargers came to town and sent the hosts back into the Dawg Pound with an easy 27-10 win.
That defeat came a week after Jameis Winston helped orchestrate a superb – perhaps miraculous – 29-24 win over the mighty Baltimore Ravens. Alas, the good vibes didn’t last very long. There were the usual whispers of DE Myles Garrett possibly being dealt by the trade deadline, but that didn’t occur – nor was there a high likelihood that it would.
The Browns did send Amari Cooper to the Bills, meaning the receiving corps consists of Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, and TE David Njoku. Not the worst group, but it isn’t a list of names that strikes fear in the hearts of defensive secondaries. The Saints aren’t very proficient at stopping the run (141 yards per match), so it could be a good day for RB Nick Chubb.
New Orleans Saints
A seven-game losing streak was halted in Week 11 courtesy of a surprise win over divisional rivals the Atlanta Falcons. Was it the Falcons proverbially fumbling in an important game? Was it the familiar interim head coach bump? Who knows, but a win is a win.
The vibes were certainly positive after the game, with coach Darren Rizzi sheepishly admitting to the media that his day had started awkwardly with some washroom pipage issues. Be that as it may, New Orleans faces an uncertain future. The playoffs are out of the question at 3-7. They traded away Marshon Lattimore at the deadline. Many of their leaders are getting up in age (Cameron Jordan is 35, Tyrann Mathieu is 32). Plus, the jury is perpetually out on Derek Carr.
This is a difficult game to assess since both teams can play decent football just as they can look awful. Ultimately, Carr is the better QB and maybe Marquez Valdes-Scantling can have another big day. He had three catches for 109 yards and two TDs versus Atlanta.
CLE
NO