The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders are both sitting at 7-7 as we enter Week 16. In most seasons, a .500 record at this point of the year would likely not have a team in the running for the playoffs but this season, the bottom of the AFC has been weak.

The Buffalo Bills are currently occupying the last playoff spot in the AFC at 8-6 but they have to face the New England Patriots (9-5) this week. That means the winner of the Broncos-Raiders has an opportunity to move up. Which of these teams is the best bet in this showdown?

This game opened as a pick’em on the NFL odds, with a total of 41.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Under has been a great bet in Broncos games this season as its cashed in seven of their last eight. On the other hand, the Broncos don’t fare well as a dog or on the road. They have lost five of seven as a dog and three of their last four away games.

As for the Raiders, they’ve lost five of seven overall and three straight at home. However, they are 15-6 in their last 21 as a home favourite.

Denver Broncos

The key storyline for the Broncos is going to be the quarterback position as starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is out this week. He suffered a scary concussion injury last week and will not be able to play in this game. That leaves Drew Lock under centre. Lock and Bridgewater are complete opposites as Bridgewater is conservative, doesn’t make mistakes and simply makes the smart plays. However, he doesn’t make very many explosive throws. On the other hand, Lock does have a big arm and can get the ball to all of the Broncos weapons, but he can’t stop coughing up turnovers. Bridgewater has seven interceptions in 426 pass attempts this season; Lock has two (and a fumble) in 40.

The good news for Lock, is the Raiders’ pass defence is in the middle of the pack in most metrics – including 23rd in terms of sacks and 20th in interceptions. It wouldn’t be surprising if Lock had a good game here as he’s not facing an overly challenging defence.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders started the season 5-2 but have been a fading commodity ever since. They are just 2-5 in their last seven games and one of those wins came against a COVID-ravaged Cleveland Browns squad on Monday. Even in that game, the Raiders needed a last-second, game-winning field goal to overcome a Browns squad that was missing a ton of regulars.

A big challenge for the Raiders will be moving the ball against a quality Broncos defence. They rank second overall in points allowed per game at 17.4 and have been even better as of late, allowing just 15.7 over their last three. That means we’re probably looking at a low-scoring game, which the Raiders have not fared well in. The Raiders have just one win on the season when scoring less than 26 points and that came against Cleveland on Monday.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Broncos vs. Raiders?