The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders are both sitting at 7-7 as we enter Week 16. In most seasons, a .500 record at this point of the year would likely not have a team in the running for the playoffs but this season, the bottom of the AFC has been weak.

The Buffalo Bills are currently occupying the last playoff spot in the AFC at 8-6 but they have to face the New England Patriots (9-5) this week. That means the winner of the Broncos-Raiders has an opportunity to move up. Which of these teams is the best bet in this showdown?

This game opened as a pick’em on the NFL odds, with a total of 41.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Under has been a great bet in Broncos games this season as its cashed in seven of their last eight. On the other hand, the Broncos don’t fare well as a dog or on the road. They have lost five of seven as a dog and three of their last four away games.

As for the Raiders, they’ve lost five of seven overall and three straight at home. However, they are 15-6 in their last 21 as a home favourite.

Denver Broncos

The key storyline for the Broncos is going to be the quarterback position as starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is out this week. He suffered a scary concussion injury last week and will not be able to play in this game. That leaves Drew Lock under centre. Lock and Bridgewater are complete opposites as Bridgewater is conservative, doesn’t make mistakes and simply makes the smart plays. However, he doesn’t make very many explosive throws. On the other hand, Lock does have a big arm and can get the ball to all of the Broncos weapons, but he can’t stop coughing up turnovers. Bridgewater has seven interceptions in 426 pass attempts this season; Lock has two (and a fumble) in 40.

The good news for Lock, is the Raiders’ pass defence is in the middle of the pack in most metrics – including 23rd in terms of sacks and 20th in interceptions. It wouldn’t be surprising if Lock had a good game here as he’s not facing an overly challenging defence.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders started the season 5-2 but have been a fading commodity ever since. They are just 2-5 in their last seven games and one of those wins came against a COVID-ravaged Cleveland Browns squad on Monday. Even in that game, the Raiders needed a last-second, game-winning field goal to overcome a Browns squad that was missing a ton of regulars.

A big challenge for the Raiders will be moving the ball against a quality Broncos defence. They rank second overall in points allowed per game at 17.4 and have been even better as of late, allowing just 15.7 over their last three. That means we’re probably looking at a low-scoring game, which the Raiders have not fared well in. The Raiders have just one win on the season when scoring less than 26 points and that came against Cleveland on Monday.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Broncos vs. Raiders?

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Broncos Team Leaders

DEN

Touchdowns	Melvin Gordon III 10
Rushing	Melvin Gordon III 918
Passing	Teddy Bridgewater 3052
Receiving	Noah Fant 68
Sacks	Shelby Harris 6
Interceptions	Justin Simmons 5

LV

Touchdowns	Hunter Renfrow 9
Rushing	Josh Jacobs 872
Passing	Derek Carr 4804
Receiving	Hunter Renfrow 103
Sacks	Yannick Ngakoue 10
Interceptions	Johnathan Abram 1

DEN

Touchdowns
Rushing
Passing	Did not qualify
Receiving
Sacks
Interceptions

LV

Touchdowns	Zay Jones 1
Rushing	Josh Jacobs 83
Passing	Derek Carr 310
Receiving	Hunter Renfrow 8
Sacks	Quinton Jefferson 1
Interceptions	Daniel Carlson 0

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Raiders Team Leaders

DEN

Touchdowns	Melvin Gordon III 10
Rushing	Melvin Gordon III 918
Passing	Teddy Bridgewater 3052
Receiving	Noah Fant 68
Sacks	Shelby Harris 6
Interceptions	Justin Simmons 5

LV

Touchdowns	Hunter Renfrow 9
Rushing	Josh Jacobs 872
Passing	Derek Carr 4804
Receiving	Hunter Renfrow 103
Sacks	Yannick Ngakoue 10
Interceptions	Johnathan Abram 1

DEN

Touchdowns
Rushing
Passing	Did not qualify
Receiving
Sacks
Interceptions

LV

Touchdowns	Zay Jones 1
Rushing	Josh Jacobs 83
Passing	Derek Carr 310
Receiving	Hunter Renfrow 8
Sacks	Quinton Jefferson 1
Interceptions	Daniel Carlson 0

Weather

temp	56
condition	sunny
wind	South 14mph

Injuries

Denver

Bobby Massie (T)

Out Sat Concussion - 08 / 01 / 22

Nate Hairston (CB)

Out indefinitely Illness - 06 / 01 / 22

Noah Fant (TE)

Prob Sat Quadricep - 04 / 01 / 22

Melvin Gordon III (RB)

Prob Sat Hip - 04 / 01 / 22

Shelby Harris (DE)

Ques Sat Ankle - 04 / 01 / 22

Kareem Jackson (S)

I-R Back - 04 / 01 / 22

Shamar Stephen (DL)

Prob Sat Quadricep - 04 / 01 / 22

Pat Surtain II (CB)

Out indefinitely Calf - 04 / 01 / 22

Javonte Williams (RB)

Prob Sat Knee - 04 / 01 / 22

Drew Lock (QB)

Prob Sat Shoulder - 03 / 01 / 22

Las Vegas

Quinton Jefferson (DT)

Ques Sat Foot - 13 / 01 / 22

Kendal Vickers (DL)

Ques Sat Back - 13 / 01 / 22

Johnathan Hankins (DT)

Ques Sat Back - 11 / 01 / 22

Josh Jacobs (RB)

Prob Sat Ribs - 11 / 01 / 22

Andre James (C)

Prob Sat Foot - 11 / 01 / 22

Foster Moreau (TE)

Prob Sat Abdominal - 11 / 01 / 22

Hunter Renfrow (WR)

Prob Sat Hip - 11 / 01 / 22

Darren Waller (TE)

Prob Sat Knee - 11 / 01 / 22

Divine Deablo (LB)

Prob Sat Shoulder - 11 / 01 / 22

Trevon Moehrig (S)

Prob Sat Shoulder - 11 / 01 / 22

Injuries

Denver

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Bobby Massie (T)	Out Sat	Concussion - 08 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Massie will not suit up against the Chiefs on Saturday due to a concussion.
Nate Hairston (CB)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 06 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Hairston has been added to the IR/COVID-19 list, and it has yet to be decided when he will return to action.
Noah Fant (TE)	Prob Sat	Quadricep - 04 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Fant is tending to a quadricep injury, but it is anticipated that he will be active for Saturday's battle with the Chiefs.
Melvin Gordon III (RB)	Prob Sat	Hip - 04 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Gordon III is hampered by a hip injury, but it is likely that he will face the Chiefs on Saturday.
Shelby Harris (DE)	Ques Sat	Ankle - 04 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Harris is managing an ankle injury, and it is up in the air if he will partake in Saturday's tilt against the Chiefs.
Kareem Jackson (S)	I-R	Back - 04 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Jackson has been ticketed for the injured reserve list due to a back and shoulder injury.
Shamar Stephen (DL)	Prob Sat	Quadricep - 04 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Stephen is dealing with a quadricep injury, but it is projected that he will be in Saturday's lineup versus the Chiefs.
Pat Surtain II (CB)	Out indefinitely	Calf - 04 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Surtain II has been placed on the injured reserve list with a calf injury, and a date for his return is unclear.
Javonte Williams (RB)	Prob Sat	Knee - 04 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Williams is managing a knee injury, but it is anticipated that he will take the field Saturday versus the Chiefs.
Drew Lock (QB)	Prob Sat	Shoulder - 03 / 01 / 22	0-1	1-0	+ -
Lock is expected to partake in Saturday's game against the Chiefs despite a shoulder injury.

Las Vegas

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Quinton Jefferson (DT)	Ques Sat	Foot - 13 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
Jefferson is dealing with a foot injury, and it is unclear if he will play in the AFC wild-card game versus the Bengals.
Kendal Vickers (DL)	Ques Sat	Back - 13 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
Vickers has a back injury, and it is undecided if he will line up against the Bengals in the AFC wild-card game.
Johnathan Hankins (DT)	Ques Sat	Back - 11 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
Hankins has injuries to his back and knee, and it is unknown if he will face the Bengals in the AFC wild-card game.
Josh Jacobs (RB)	Prob Sat	Ribs - 11 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
Jacobs is nursing a rib injury, but it is projected that he will play against the Bengals in the AFC wild-card game.
Andre James (C)	Prob Sat	Foot - 11 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
James is battling a foot ailment, but it is likely that he will line up for the AFC wild-card game against the Bengals.
Foster Moreau (TE)	Prob Sat	Abdominal - 11 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
Moreau has injuries to his abdomen and ankle, but it is anticipated that he will lace up against the Bengals in the AFC wild-card game.
Hunter Renfrow (WR)	Prob Sat	Hip - 11 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
Renfrow is hampered by a hip issue, but it is likely to that he will dress for the AFC wild-card game against the Bengals.
Darren Waller (TE)	Prob Sat	Knee - 11 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
Waller is expected to take on the Bengals in the AFC wild-card game despite a knee injury.
Divine Deablo (LB)	Prob Sat	Shoulder - 11 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
Deablo is expected to take the field against the Bengals in the AFC wild-card game despite injuries to his shoulder and wrist.
Trevon Moehrig (S)	Prob Sat	Shoulder - 11 / 01 / 22	1-0	1-0	+ -
Moehrig is tending to a shoulder issue, but it is likely that he will participate in the AFC wild-card game against the Bengals.