There have been some incredible Monday night games this year, and NFL Week 6 closes with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Tennessee Titans in a matchup of AFC division leaders. The Bills are 5.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 54.5 points.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It would be an upset if both these teams don’t repeat as AFC division champions. Tennessee (3-2) plays in the wretched AFC South, where every other team already has at least four losses. Buffalo (4-1) plays in the not-much-better AFC East, where every other team has at least three losses.

Counting their days as the Houston Oilers and any playoff matchups, the Titans are 29-19 all-time vs. the Bills. This will be the fourth straight regular season they face off. Tennessee lost the first two but dominated last year in Week 5 on a Tuesday night, 42-16, easily the worst game Buffalo played in 2020. Ryan Tannehill threw for three touchdowns and rushed for a fourth, while Derrick Henry rushed for two even though he was largely held in check yardage-wise with 57 on 19 carries. Buffalo out-gained the Titans but turned the ball over three times, with Josh Allen picked off twice.

The underdog has covered the past six in the series.

Buffalo Bills

For the first time this season, the Bills are Super Bowl 56 favourites at +489. They deserve to be favoured, following a hugely impressive 38-20 win at previous favourite Kansas City on Sunday night in Week 5, the team’s fourth straight win by at least 18 points. Quarterback Josh Allen was the MVP runner-up in 2020 but is now the +365 favourite to win in 2021 after throwing for 315 yards (on just 15 completions) and three scores and rushing for 59 yards and a touchdown.

Buffalo’s receivers were wide open deep down the field all night. New addition WR Emmanuel Sanders is averaging a career-high 16.9 yards per reception. The Bills forced four Chiefs turnovers and lead the league in total defence (251.8 ypg) and scoring (12.8 ppg). Top linebacker Matt Milano missed Week 5 with an injury and is questionable for Week 6. The Bills are 13-3 ATS in their past 16.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are old school: They want to run the ball down teams’ throats behind two-time rushing champion Derrick Henry. He had a fourth straight 100-yard game Sunday in a 37-19 win at Jacksonville with 130 yards and three touchdowns. The former Heisman Trophy winner leads the NFL by far with 640 yards and with seven rushing TDs and could set the league single-season record in both – especially with the added 17th game. Henry is the second player in NFL history to have 100 or more yds rushing and three TDs in multiple games within the first 5 games of the season. The other was Jim Brown in 1958.

No. 1 wideout AJ Brown returned after missing a game injured but was quiet; No. 1A receiver Julio Jones missed his second in a row injured and is questionable for Sunday. The Titans have struggled defensively at times, allowing 377.4 yards and 26.0 points. Jacksonville isn’t exactly a powerhouse and had 454 yards but turned it over twice. The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their past nine Monday games.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Titans?