New England will host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon and this game is important for the Patriots as they need to win out to even have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Even after last week’s win over Detroit, Buffalo is still just 5-9 against the spread this season. The Bills haven’t travelled well at all this year with a 2-5 record away from home. However, they 8-4 ATS in their last 12 as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.

Despite back-to-back losses New England is still 8-6 against the spread this season. The Patriots have played their best football at home this season, going 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in those games. New England has dominated division play at home over the last eight years, going 23-2 straight up versus AFC East opponents at Gillette Stadium since 2010. They have covered five of six at home this season and 19 of their last 26.

Buffalo Bills

Rookie quarterback Josh Allen has shown some positive signs throughout his first year in the NFL. Allen leads the team with 1,633 passing yards and 506 rushing yards, which is 27 rushing yards more than running back LeSean McCoy. That is both good news and bad news for football fans in Buffalo. On the one hand, Allen is a mobile quarterback that can make plays with both his legs and his rocket arm. On the other hand, the fact that he leads the team in rushing yards on just 75 attempts is a testament to how bad the run game has been overall. He’s wildly inaccurate as he has completed less than 60% of his passes for seven straight games. That means the Patriots do their best to keep him in the pocket and pass.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills have been giving their team a chance to win. They’re giving up just 18.4 points per game over their last five. The challenge here is that none of those five teams has a winning record. Buffalo will be in tough to keep a Patriots offence looking to get right under wraps.

New England Patriots

Nobody expected the Patriots to lose back-to-back games against the Dolphins and Steelers. Fortunately for New England, they now return home where they have played their best football this season. And this team – with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick – doesn’t lose consecutive games in December very often. The last time it happened before last week was 2002, so it’s been a while.

This week, the Patriots get a layup with the Bills. The only realistic question is if they’ll cover. They are 32-2 SU in their last 34 home games as a favorite of 10.5 to 14. They are just 17-17 ATS in those contest.

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction