The Bills are double-digit underdogs for a second straight week – but that didn’t phase them last time out, as they shocked the Vikings 27-6 in Minnesota despite getting 16.5 points. The Packers are coming off a 31-17 rout at the hands of host Washington.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Buffalo had lost 17 consecutive games SU as a double-digit ‘dog before last week’s win – so what are the chances of lightning striking twice? Bettors should start by concerning themselves with the Bills’ ability to cover in that scenario – and the news isn’t great on that front, with Buffalo having gone just 3-5 ATS the last eight times they’ve received 10 or more points. Green Bay is 1-3 ATS the last four times it has been a double-digit fave, with its only win coming on the road.

The total for this one has risen 1.5 points to 45.5 – and given how prolific the Packers have been at converting the over, that number might continue to climb. Green Bay is an incredible 21-5 O/U in its previous 26 games overall, and has cashed the over in nine of its past 10 games against teams with losing records. Buffalo has exceeded the total in five of its previous seven games following a straight-up win, but is 0-5 O/U in its last five Week 4 games.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen has been a revelation for the Bills, guiding them to last week’s incredible upset on the strength of one passing touchdown and two rushing scores. He leads the team with 97 yards on the ground and completed better than 68 percent of his passes vs. the Vikings. But with the Packers ranking 10th in the NFL in QB pressure, Allen could find things a little rougher at Lambeau than he did in Minnesota – so be wary of Buffalo going over its team total of 18.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers has been good but not great through the first three games – and part of that is the fault of his top two receivers. Both Randall Cobb and Davante Adams have a pair of drops; only three receivers have more. Cobb, in particular, had a disastrous afternoon against Washington, dropping a pair of passes that would have extended Green Bay drives and losing a key fumble. Look for a solid bounce-back at home, where the Packers are a good bet to surpass their team total of 28 points.

Weather

temp	49
condition	cloudy
wind	Northeast 9mph

Injuries

Buffalo

Deonte Thompson (WR)

Out Sun Toe - 28 / 12 / 18

Patrick DiMarco (FB)

Prob Sun Ankle - 19 / 12 / 18

Corey Thompson (LB)

Prob Sun Ankle - 19 / 12 / 18

Stephen Hauschka (K)

Prob Sun Back - 10 / 12 / 18

Ryan Lewis (CB)

Out Sun Concussion - 10 / 12 / 18

Isaiah McKenzie (WR)

Ques Sun Toe - 06 / 12 / 18

Jason Croom (TE)

Prob Sun Groin - 05 / 12 / 18

Lafayette Pitts (CB)

Ques Sun Concussion - 25 / 11 / 18

Russell Bodine (C)

Ques Sun Shoulder - 21 / 11 / 18

Shaq Lawson (DE)

Ques Sun Elbow - 21 / 11 / 18

Green Bay

Fadol Brown (DL)

Ques Sun Toe - 28 / 12 / 18

JK Scott (P)

Prob Sun Illness - 19 / 12 / 18

Jamaal Williams (RB)

Prob Sun Toe - 19 / 12 / 18

Will Redmond (CB)

out for season Shoulder - 19 / 12 / 18

Alex Light (T)

Prob Sun Suspension - 17 / 12 / 18

Kenny Clark (DL)

I-R Elbow - 09 / 12 / 18

Hunter Bradley (LS)

Ques Sun Ankle - 06 / 12 / 18

Clay Matthews (LB)

Ques Sun Ankle - 05 / 12 / 18

Ibraheim Campbell (S)

I-R Undisclosed - 04 / 12 / 18

Byron Bell (T)

I-R Knee - 02 / 12 / 18

Injuries

Buffalo

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Deonte Thompson (WR)	Out Sun	Toe - 28 / 12 / 18	1-0	0-1	+ -
Thompson will not take the field against the Dolphins on Sunday due to a toe injury.
Patrick DiMarco (FB)	Prob Sun	Ankle - 19 / 12 / 18	1-1	0-2	+ -
DiMarco is battling an ankle injury but is expected to be available Sunday against the Patriots.
Corey Thompson (LB)	Prob Sun	Ankle - 19 / 12 / 18	1-1	0-2	+ -
Thompson is hampered by an ankle injury but it is not expected to affect his status for Sunday's tilt against the Patriots.
Stephen Hauschka (K)	Prob Sun	Back - 10 / 12 / 18	1-2	1-2	+ -
Hauschka missed the last game with a lower-back injury but it is anticipated that he will participate in Sunday's contest against the Patriots.
Ryan Lewis (CB)	Out Sun	Concussion - 10 / 12 / 18	1-2	1-2	+ -
Lewis has missed the last two games battling a concussion and will not be able to pass the league-mandated protocol in time for Sunday's game against the Dolphins.
Isaiah McKenzie (WR)	Ques Sun	Toe - 06 / 12 / 18	1-3	1-3	+ -
McKenzie is hampered by a toe injury and it is unclear if he will take the field Sunday versus the Jets.
Jason Croom (TE)	Prob Sun	Groin - 05 / 12 / 18	1-3	1-3	+ -
Croom missed the last game with a groin injury but is likely to play against the Lions on Sunday.
Lafayette Pitts (CB)	Ques Sun	Concussion - 25 / 11 / 18	3-3	3-3	+ -
Pitts left the last game due to a concussion and his status for Sunday's contest against the Dolphins is up in the air.
Russell Bodine (C)	Ques Sun	Shoulder - 21 / 11 / 18	3-3	3-3	+ -
Bodine is battling a shoulder injury and it is undetermined if he will play Sunday against the Jaguars.
Shaq Lawson (DE)	Ques Sun	Elbow - 21 / 11 / 18	3-3	3-3	+ -
Lawson has an elbow injury and it is unknown if he will play Sunday against the Jaguars.

Green Bay

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Fadol Brown (DL)	Ques Sun	Toe - 28 / 12 / 18	1-0	1-0	+ -
Brown is bothered by a toe issue that provides uncertain status for Sunday's game against the Lions.
JK Scott (P)	Prob Sun	Illness - 19 / 12 / 18	1-1	1-1	+ -
Scott is indisposed with an illness but is expected to be in Sunday's lineup against the Jets.
Jamaal Williams (RB)	Prob Sun	Toe - 19 / 12 / 18	1-1	1-1	+ -
Williams is tending to a toe injury but it is expected he will face the Jets on Sunday.
Will Redmond (CB)	out for season	Shoulder - 19 / 12 / 18	1-1	1-1	+ -
Redmond has been placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, ending his season.
Alex Light (T)	Prob Sun	Suspension - 17 / 12 / 18	1-1	1-1	+ -
Light received a one-game suspension for violating the league policy on substance abuse but has been reinstated for Sunday's game against the Lions.
Kenny Clark (DL)	I-R	Elbow - 09 / 12 / 18	2-2	2-2	+ -
Clark suffered an elbow injury and is on the injured reserve list.
Hunter Bradley (LS)	Ques Sun	Ankle - 06 / 12 / 18	2-2	2-2	+ -
Bradley injured his ankle and it is undetermined if it will prevent him from playing against the Falcons on Sunday.
Clay Matthews (LB)	Ques Sun	Ankle - 05 / 12 / 18	2-2	2-2	+ -
Matthews is tending to an ankle injury, leaving his availability against the Falcons on Sunday hazy.
Ibraheim Campbell (S)	I-R	Undisclosed - 04 / 12 / 18	2-2	2-2	+ -
Campbell is on injured reserve due to an unspecified ailment.
Byron Bell (T)	I-R	Knee - 02 / 12 / 18	2-3	2-3	+ -
Bell is on injured reserve with a knee injury.

Bills vs. Packers Prediction