Bills vs. Packers Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction

Andrew Rogers | Updated Sep 26, 2018

Bills-quarterback-Josh-Allen

Can they do it again? Fans and bettors alike are wondering that very thing as the Buffalo Bills head to hostile Lambeau Field for a Sunday afternoon date with the Green Bay Packers.

Buffalo
6-10
AT
September 30, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
Lambeau Field
Green Bay
6-9
Pointspread +9 -110
Moneyline +300
Over / Under o +44

55%

Betting Action

45%

Pointspread -9 -110
Moneyline -380
Over / Under u +44

55%

Betting Action

45%

The Bills are double-digit underdogs for a second straight week – but that didn’t phase them last time out, as they shocked the Vikings 27-6 in Minnesota despite getting 16.5 points. The Packers are coming off a 31-17 rout at the hands of host Washington.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Buffalo had lost 17 consecutive games SU as a double-digit ‘dog before last week’s win – so what are the chances of lightning striking twice? Bettors should start by concerning themselves with the Bills’ ability to cover in that scenario – and the news isn’t great on that front, with Buffalo having gone just 3-5 ATS the last eight times they’ve received 10 or more points. Green Bay is 1-3 ATS the last four times it has been a double-digit fave, with its only win coming on the road.

The total for this one has risen 1.5 points to 45.5 – and given how prolific the Packers have been at converting the over, that number might continue to climb. Green Bay is an incredible 21-5 O/U in its previous 26 games overall, and has cashed the over in nine of its past 10 games against teams with losing records. Buffalo has exceeded the total in five of its previous seven games following a straight-up win, but is 0-5 O/U in its last five Week 4 games.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen has been a revelation for the Bills, guiding them to last week’s incredible upset on the strength of one passing touchdown and two rushing scores. He leads the team with 97 yards on the ground and completed better than 68 percent of his passes vs. the Vikings. But with the Packers ranking 10th in the NFL in QB pressure, Allen could find things a little rougher at Lambeau than he did in Minnesota – so be wary of Buffalo going over its team total of 18.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers has been good but not great through the first three games – and part of that is the fault of his top two receivers. Both Randall Cobb and Davante Adams have a pair of drops; only three receivers have more. Cobb, in particular, had a disastrous afternoon against Washington, dropping a pair of passes that would have extended Green Bay drives and losing a key fumble. Look for a solid bounce-back at home, where the Packers are a good bet to surpass their team total of 28 points.

Bills vs. Packers Prediction

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