Bills vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 2 Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Sep 15, 2021

After a surprising Week 1 loss, the Buffalo Bills will look to get back on track in Miami against the Dolphins on Sunday.

Buffalo
4-1
AT
September 19, 2021, 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
1-4
Pointspread -4 -105
Moneyline -198
Over / Under o +48

21%

Betting Action

79%

Pointspread +4 -115
Moneyline +165
Over / Under u +48

21%

Betting Action

79%

The 1-0 Miami Dolphins have a chance to build on their AFC East lead when they host division rivals, the 0-1 Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Miami’s season started with a tight 17-16 win in New England against the Patriots last week.  Buffalo, on the other hand, dropped a 23-16 decision at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Can the Dolphins start to build a cushion in the division, or will the Bills make a statement and show last week was a fluke?

Buffalo is a 3.5-point road favourite to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 47.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Sports Interaction bettors clearly think last week was a one-off for both teams, as almost 90 per cent of betting action is taking Buffalo.  That’s not a surprising number when you consider the Bills’ five game win streak against Miami, including a 56-26 blowout in January, which ended the Dolphins’ playoff chances.

The total for this game is seeing about 60 per cent of bettors favouring the Over.  If these teams trend the way they did last season, that Over bet could be smart.  Buffalo had 11 of their 19 games (including playoffs) end with more than 47.5 total points, while Miami hit above that number in eight of 16 games.

Although they didn’t cover last week, the Bills were a great cover option in 2020, going 11-5 against the spread in the regular season.  That number, however, dropped to 5-4 ATS when they were playing as at least 3.5-point favourites.  Miami was also 11-5 ATS last year, including 5-2 ATS when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs.

Buffalo Bills

Things looked good for Buffalo against Pittsburgh last week as they entered the halftime break with a 10-0 lead.  Their offence, however, completely faltered the rest of the game and blew the double-digit lead.  It was shocking to see the NFL’s second-highest scoring team in 2020 manage just one touchdown in the game, a three-yard Josh Allen pass to Gabriel Davis.  Allen finished the game 30-for-51 passing, with 270 yards and the Davis touchdown pass.  After a breakout year in 2020, Allen finished Week 1 with a 79.7 QB rating.  Stefon Diggs, who led the NFL in receiving yards last year, finished with just 69 yards on nine catches.

You can look to multiple errors as to what cost the Bills the game in Week 1.  Allen was sacked three times and lost a costly fumble.  Buffalo also failed to convert on two fourth-down attempts and had to settle for three field goals despite crossing midfield on eight of 11 possessions.

It’s not all bad for the Bills though, as they’ll get an easier opponent in Miami this week.  Buffalo scored 86 points in two games against the Dolphins last year and Allen threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns the last time these teams met.  In the game before that, Diggs had a huge 153-yard receiving game, including a 22-yard touchdown.

Miami Dolphins

Miami is likely coming into this game with sky-high confidence after beating division rival New England last week.  Second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the revamped offence.  Tagovailoa went 16-for-27 passing, finishing with 202 passing yards, a touchdown and an interception.  He also added a three-yard touchdown run.  The run-game is the biggest concern for the Dolphins after Week 1.  Miami managed just 74 yards on 23 carries.

The biggest play against the Patriots came from cornerback Xavien Howard.  After being one of the best players in the NFL at causing turnovers in 2020 and leading the league with 10 interceptions, Howard was back at it again last week.  Leading by just one point in the fourth quarter, Howard’s fumble recovery preserved the win.

The only injury news of note from the game was defensive tackle Raekwon Davis’ knee injury.  Davis only lasted five snaps before leaving the game and will miss a minimum of three weeks after being placed on injured reserve on Tuesday.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Dolphins?

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