Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Point Spread: AFC Championship Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 19, 2021

buffalo bills vs kansas city chiefs

Like in the NFC Championship game earlier Sunday, the AFC Championship game is a regular-season rematch as the Bills visit the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs.

Buffalo
13-3
AT
January 24, 2021, 6:40 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Pointspread +3 -125
Moneyline +123
Over / Under o +54.5

56%

Betting Action

44%

Pointspread -3 +104
Moneyline -148
Over / Under u +54.5

56%

Betting Action

44%

The champs are 3-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 53.

Barring something unforeseen, Kansas City would be a favourite (likely -2.5) in Super Bowl 55 against either Green Bay or Tampa Bay on Feb. 7 in Tampa, while Buffalo would be short underdog.

AFC Championship Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s the first postseason meeting between these franchises since the AFC title game following the 1993 season when Buffalo was a 30-13 winner. The Bills would go on to lose a fourth straight Super Bowl and hadn’t been back to the AFC Championship Game until now. It’s the third straight such game for Kansas City, which split the previous two both also at home.

The Chiefs are +220 favourites to repeat as Super Bowl champions and the favoured exact result is Kansas City over Green Bay at +325. Buffalo is +300 to win its first Super Bowl.

In Week 6 on Monday night in Buffalo, the Chiefs were 5.5-point favourites and won 26-17 thanks in large part to 245 yards rushing – 161 from rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Patrick Mahomes had only five incompletions in 26 attempts for 225 yards and two scores, both to Travis Kelce. The Chiefs utterly dominated time of possession. Buffalo was held to 206 yards, with Josh Allen throwing for just 122. He had two TDs but a pick.

Kansas City is 4-1 against the spread in the past five meetings.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have lost just once since that Chiefs game and enter on an eight-game winning streak following a 17-3 home win over Baltimore last Saturday, so a minor advantage here being on an extra day of rest. The turning point vs. the Ravens was a Taron Johnson 101-yard interception return for a touchdown late in the third quarter when it looked as if the game would be tied 10-10. That tied for the longest interception return for a score in postseason history.

Buffalo shortly after knocked out Ravens QB Lamar Jackson with a concussion and that was that. It was a very windy day and both kickers missed two field goals in three tries. Buffalo was outgained 340-220 but didn’t turn it over and had only two penalties for 11 yards. Allen was 23-for-37 for 206 yards and a score. Stefon Diggs led the NFL during the season in catches and yards and had eight grabs for 106 yards and a touchdown. It was Diggs’ 17th game this season, including playoffs, with at least six catches. That’s an NFL single-season record. It appears the Bills got out of that game healthy. They are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 overall.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have joined the 2002-04 Philadelphia Eagles as the only teams in NFL history to host three consecutive conference championship games. What do those clubs have in common? Both coached by Andy Reid. Kansas City beat Cleveland 22-17 on Sunday – it looked like a potential rout up 19-3 at the half, but then Mahomes left with a possible concussion in the third quarter and everything changed. Reid had one of the gutsiest calls in NFL playoff history in going for it on fourth-and-1 at his own 48 with barely a minute left and backup QB Chad Henne in the game. Henne completed a short pass to Tyreek Hill and that clinched it.

Obviously, the status of Mahomes looms over this game as Buffalo would be favoured if he can’t play. It’s widely expected he will, however. It’s not even clear that Mahomes suffered a concussion but more looked as if he was nearly choked out on the tackle he was injured. Mahomes has won 24 of his past 25 starts including playoffs. He’s the first QB since 1950 to ever go on a 24-1 stretch. The Chiefs didn’t cover the spread vs. Cleveland and are an ugly 1-8 ATS in their past nine games. They keep winning – other than Week 17 when many starters sat out – but very close. Monitor the status of Edwards-Helaire and wideout Sammy Watkins as both missed last week’s game injured.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Chiefs?

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