Bills vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Divisional Playoffs Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 18, 2022

The last of four NFL Divisional Round games is also the marquee matchup of them as the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday evening.

Buffalo
11-6
AT
January 23, 2022, 6:30 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Pointspread +2 -110
Moneyline +110
Over / Under o +54.5

56%

Betting Action

44%

Pointspread -2 -110
Moneyline -132
Over / Under u +54.5

56%

Betting Action

44%

The Chiefs are 2.5-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 55 points.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Even though the Tennessee Titans are the AFC’s top seed, many believe this matchup is the de facto AFC title game. Sports Interaction oddsmakers do because Kansas City is the +173 favourite to win the AFC and Buffalo is next at +231. The winner here would visit the Titans in that game if Tennessee beats Cincinnati and would host the conference championship game if the Bengals pull off the upset.

Kansas City hosted Buffalo in last season’s AFC title tilt and won 38-24. Patrick Mahomes threw for 305 yards and three scores and Travis Kelce caught passes for 118 yards and two scores. Buffalo got a small amount of payback in Week 5 this season at Arrowhead Stadium with a 38-20 win, although the Chiefs were really scuffling back then. Josh Allen was the better QB that day with 315 yards passing and three scores while rushing for 59 yards and a TD. Mahomes had two picks and lost a fumble.

The Chiefs are 5-2 against the spread in the past seven meetings.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo played arguably the perfect game last Saturday night in blowing out rival New England 47-17. It was the largest playoff defeat with the Pats for coach Bill Belichick. Buffalo became the NFL’s first team in the Super Bowl era to score on each of its seven possessions that didn’t end with a kneel-down. It Bills also became the first team in NFL history to go an entire playoff game without a punt, field goal or turnover. Josh Allen had one more TD pass (five) than incompletions (four) and the Bills rushed for 174 yards and two scores, both TDs by Devin Singletary. He has two TDs in three straight games.

The league’s No. 1 defence picked off rookie Mac Jones twice. If the Bills lose this game, it may be the last there for offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. Both have interviewed for multiple head coach openings. Daboll is all but a lock to get one. Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in its past eight as a dog.

Kansas City Chiefs

While I expected the Chiefs to beat the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, I expected it to be somewhat competitive. Kansas City complied for about a quarter-and-a-half but then blew the doors off the Steelers in a 42-21 victory. Patrick Mahomes threw for 404 yards and five scores. Those five TDs came on five straight possessions in a 10-minute, 30-second stretch spanning the second and third quarters — the shortest span for five TDs in NFL history. It was Mahomes’ fourth-career outing with at least 400 passing yards and five TDs, which are the most such games for any player in NFL history.

With No. 1 running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire out and 1B Darrel Williams banged up, Jerick McKinnon came up big with 142 yards from scrimmage and a TD. Travis Kelce caught five balls for 108 yards and the future Hall of Fame tight end added the first TD pass of his career. Pittsburgh punted on seven straight possessions to begin the contest, mustering just 44 yards of offence and two first downs in the first half. Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its past five at home.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Chiefs?

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