Bengals vs. Chiefs Point Spread: AFC Conference Championships Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 24, 2022

The NFL’s conference championship Sunday has a lot to live up to after a simply incredible weekend of football in the Divisional Round.

Cincinnati
10-7
AT
January 30, 2022, 3:00 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Pointspread +7 -115
Moneyline +245
Over / Under o +55

53%

Betting Action

47%

Pointspread -7 -105
Moneyline -296
Over / Under u +55

53%

Betting Action

47%

In the AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs are 7-point home favourites on the NFL odds over the Cincinnati Bengals for a trip to Super Bowl 56.

AFC Conference Championship Point Spread, Odds and Betting Analysis

How amazing were the four Divisional Round games? They all ended on walk-offs and the road underdog nearly won all four games — and should have. The four games were decided by a combined total of 15 points, for an average margin of victory of 3.8 points per game. That’s the lowest average margin of victory in NFL playoff history in a round with at least four games.

The Bengals-Chiefs AFC title game is the first matchup Sunday with the winner facing either the San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 56 in L.A. Kansas City is the first team in history to host four straight AFC title games. The Chiefs are 2-1 in the previous three and that lone loss came in overtime. Cincinnati is in the game for the first time since following the 1988 season.

These teams met Week 17 in Cincinnati and the Bengals won a terrific game 34-31 to clinch the AFC North title. Evan McPherson won it on a 20-yard field goal as time expired. Joe Burrow threw for 446 yards and four scores. Ja’Marr Chase had the best game for a rookie receiver in history with 11 catches for 266 yards (NFL rookie record) and three scores. Patrick Mahomes threw for 259 and two scores in the loss and Darrel Williams rushed for two TDs.

The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings.

Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati probably didn’t deserve to win Saturday at AFC top-seeded Tennessee as the Titans sacked Bengals QB Joe Burrow a whopping nine times (tied for most sacks allowed in a playoff game) and had the ball at the end with a chance to drive into field goal range and win it, but Ryan Tannehill was picked off with 20 seconds left – his third interception of the game. Burrow hit Pro Bowl rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase with a 19-yard pass, then the Bengals ran twice to set up rookie Evan McPherson for the win. He drilled a 52-yarder as time expired.

Burrow threw for 348 yards to become the first quarterback taken No. 1 overall to win a Divisional game within his first two seasons. The former Heisman winner is also the first player in league history to complete at least 70 per cent of his passes in each of his first two career playoff games, with a minimum of 10 attempts in each.  Chase finished with 109 yards receiving. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its past five as a road underdog.

Kansas City Chiefs

Honestly, if you didn’t see the ending of the Bills-Chiefs game in Kansas City on Sunday night, I’m not sure I can describe it, but that will go down as one of the great games in NFL history as Kansas City impossibly won 42-36 in overtime – despite trailing by three and having the ball with only 13 seconds left in regulation on their own 35-yard line. Patrick Mahomes got Kansas City into field goal range and Harrison Butker, who had missed an earlier field goal and PAT, drilled the 49-yarder to send it to OT. There, the Chiefs won the toss and scored a TD on a Mahomes to Travis Kelce pass to end it. Buffalo never got the ball.

The 25 combined points were the second-most in the last two minutes of regulation of any game (regular season or postseason) in the Super Bowl era. Mahomes threw for 378 yards and three scores and also rushed for a career-high 69 yards with a score. In the final two minutes of regulation and overtime, Mahomes was 10-of-13 for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Tyreek Hill caught 11 passes for 150 yards and a TD. Kansas City did lose star safety Tyrann Mathieu early on to a concussion, and it’s not yet clear if he will play in this one. Mathieu was badly missed. Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its past six at home.

AFC Conference Championship Prediction: Who Will Win Bengals vs. Chiefs?

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