Bears vs. Lions Thanksgiving Point Spread: NFL Week 12 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Nov 23, 2021

It’s an early start to Week 12 around the NFL with the first of three games on the American Thanksgiving holiday as the Chicago Bears visit the Detroit Lions.

Chicago
6-11
AT
November 25, 2021, 12:30 PM ET
Ford Field
Detroit
3-13
Pointspread -2 -110
Moneyline -126
Over / Under o +41.5

53%

Betting Action

47%

Pointspread +2 -110
Moneyline +105
Over / Under u +41.5

53%

Betting Action

47%

The Lions are 3.5-point underdogs on the NFL odds with a total of 42 points.

NFL Thanksgiving Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Detroit started hosted Thanksgiving Day games in 1934, when then-owner George A. Richards was hoping to attract more fans. The Lions have been brutal in recent years, but the Thanksgiving game usually is the one guaranteed sellout in Motown. Chicago has been a very frequent Thanksgiving opponent, winning the games in 2018 & ’19. The Lions have lost their past four on the holiday.

Thursday concludes the season series between NFC North rivals. In Week 4, Chicago beat visiting Detroit 24-14 in what was then Justin Fields’ second career NFL start at QB for the Bears. He threw for 209 yards and a pick and was sacked just once. Fields is injured now, though. Chicago relied on its ground game led by David Montgomery, who rushed 23 times for 106 yards and two scores.  Jared Goff was 24 of 38 for 299 yards and two scores for Detroit. He’s not expected to play Thursday.

Chicago is 5-2 against the spread in the past seven meetings.

Chicago Bears

There are many rumours out there that if the Bears lose their sixth straight game Thursday on national TV against a hapless Lions team that embattled Coach Matt Nagy could be fired as soon as Friday – in fact, the latest rumours are the he will be regardless. Not sure if that’s true, but it’s a done deal Nagy will not be back in 2022. The franchise has never fired a coach in season. Boos and “Fire Nagy” chants rained down in Chicago on Sunday when the Bears lost 16-13 to a Ravens team missing star QB Lamar Jackson and its top receiver.

Chicago rookie QB Justin Fields left in the third quarter with ribs injuries – they are not broken, but it’s quite unlikely that Fields starts Thursday and that it will be veteran Andy Dalton. In relief Sunday, Dalton went 11-of-23 for 201 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Those numbers are inflated by one receiver screen that went 60 yards for a TD. Chicago’s top receiver, Allen Robinson, missed Week 11 with a hamstring injury and isn’t likely Thursday. The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 vs. the NFC North.

Detroit Lions

Looking at the rest of the Lions’ schedule this is likely their last best chance to avoid a winless season with No. 2 at Atlanta on Dec. 26. Although, it could be that Green Bay has its playoff seed locked in when it visits Detroit in Week 18 and could rest all of its starters. Starting QB Jared Goff missed Sunday’s 13-10 loss in Cleveland with an oblique injury and is expected out Thursday. Former Packers backup Tim Boyle made his first NFL start vs. the Browns and was flat-out terrible in completing 15-for-23 for 77 yards and two picks but should get the call again.

David Blough would be waiting if Boyle struggles again. Frankly, the only good Lions player on offence right now is running back D’Andre Swift, who rushed for 136 yards and a TD vs. Cleveland. The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their past four after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bears vs. Lions?

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