2024 NFL Week 1 Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread

Payton Matthews | Updated Sep 03, 2024

NFL: Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs

The 2024 NFL regular season kicks off this week with the Kansas City Chiefs trying to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls.

The biggest rule change to monitor, in case you ignored the preseason, is the new kickoff setup that is supposed to help lower the amount of touchbacks. There were mixed reactions during the preseason. Here’s a look at all Week 1 games with NFL odds and played Sunday unless noted.

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Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday

The annual Kickoff Game, of which Kansas City has become a staple since Patrick Mahomes took over as the team’s starting quarterback. Mahomes and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson have combined for four of the past six NFL MVP Awards after Jackson won it last year. The Ravens finally got a home playoff game vs. the Chiefs for the AFC title in January, but Kansas City pulled off a 17-10 minor upset. It will be the Baltimore debut of former two-time NFL rushing champion Derrick Henry. The Ravens are my pick to win the Super Bowl. It is believed Taylor Swift will be in attendance Thursday.

Point spread: Chiefs -3

Pick ATS: Baltimore (alternate line of +3.5)

Green Bay Packers “at” Philadelphia Eagles, Friday

From Sao Paulo, Brazil, the NFL’s first-ever game in South America and a matchup of 2023 playoff teams – the Eagles will be the home team. Green Bay will become the only team in the NFL to open the season as the road team each of the last six years. It’s also the first NFL game on the Friday of opening weekend since Sept. 18, 1970. The Packers have won three of the last five matchups and six of the last eight including playoffs. They last met in 2022 in Philly and the Eagles prevailed 40-33.

Point spread: Eagles -2.5

Pick ATS: Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have a new quarterback room after adding both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields this offseason and Wilson has won the starting job for now – both are one one-year deals, so Pittsburgh may have to start all over again under centre next offseason. Fields is a Georgia native and had been linked with Atlanta, but the Falcons opted to sign former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins to a big free-agent deal instead. He will debut in this one after not playing at all in the preseason.

Point spread: Falcons -3

Pick ATS: Atlanta (alternate line of -2.5)

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

A lot of people think Arizona will be much better this year because Kyler Murray looked quite good in the second half of last season after returning from a major injury, and the Cards landed one of the top wide receiver prospects in years in the 2024 NFL Draft in former Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. If a quarterback doesn’t win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Harrison might. Buffalo certainly got worse this offseason in trading away Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs and releasing some other veteran starters for salary-cap reasons, but the Bills still have QB Josh Allen.

Point spread: Bills -6

Pick ATS: Buffalo

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

It’s arguably the most anticipated player debut in Chicago Bears history on Sunday as rookie No. 1 overall pick and quarterback Caleb Williams is welcomed to the NFL. The former Heisman Trophy winner showed signs of brilliance this preseason. No Chicago QB has ever thrown for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs in a season. Not out of the question Williams does both in 2024. The Titans aren’t sure if they have their franchise QB yet in Will Levis, a 2023 second-round pick. He had some typical rookie growing pains in nine games last year. It’s the NFL head coaching debut of Tennessee’s Brian Callahan. He spent the past five seasons as Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator.

Point spread: Bears -4.5

Pick ATS: Chicago

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

The Patriots have the lowest season win total on the board at just 4.5 and first-year head coach Jerod Mayo, a former star linebacker for the team, has announced that veteran Jacoby Brissett will be his Week 1 starting quarterback, but he’s simply holding that spot for rookie No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye. New England also fairly recently traded its best defensive player in pass-rusher Matthew Judon to Atlanta. It’s going to be a long season for the Pats. Last year, Cincinnati became the first team in the Super Bowl era to finish last in its division with a winning record (9-8). Joe Burrow suffered yet another season-ending injury but is healthy now. But will superstar WR Ja’Marr Chase play in the opener? He has been ”holding in” looking for a massive new contract. Reports are that may get done this week.

Point spread: Bengals -8.5

Pick ATS: Cincinnati

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Houston had the third-longest odds to win a division title in the entire league last year but did capture the AFC South on the backs of quarterback CJ Stroud, the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr., the Defensive Rookie of the Year. GM Nick Caserio had another terrific offseason this year as well in trading for Bills Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs among other moves. A rising power in Houston. Colts QB Anthony Richardson, chosen two spots after Stroud early in the first round of the 2023 draft, showed signs of stardom as a rookie for the Colts but lasted only four games before a season-ending injury. He’s healthy now. These division rivals split in 2023, each winning on the road.

Point spread: Texans -2.5

Pick ATS: Houston

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Both teams locked up their franchise quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa, to massive extensions this summer. The Jaguars looked Super Bowl-worthy for the first half of 2023 but then imploded and missed the playoffs entirely. The Dolphins lost in the wild-card round for the second season in a row. They will open the season without receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and pass-rusher Bradley Chubb with both on the PUP list. It’s the first meeting between state rivals since 2021.

Point spread: Dolphins -3.5

Pick ATS: Jacksonville

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Few NFL teams have ever had a worse year than Carolina did in 2023. It traded away star receiver DJ Moore and its 2023 and 2024 first-round picks (and more) to Chicago in order to move up in last year’s draft and select Alabama QB Bryce Young at No. 1 overall. He was nothing short of historically bad as a rookie but also had little to nothing around him as the Cats finished 2-15. And of course, the Bears used that 2024 pick this year at No. 1 overall from the Panthers on an even better QB prospect in Caleb Williams. It’s the head coaching debut of Carolina’s Dave Canales, formerly Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator. The Saints are one of those teams stuck in NFL purgatory – not likely good enough to make the playoffs and not likely bad enough to pick high in the 2025 draft. New Orleans was 2-0 vs. Carolina last year.

Point spread: Saints -4

Pick ATS: New Orleans

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

The Vikings took Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy at No. 10 overall in this year’s draft with the expectation that he might not start Week 1 this year but would certainly take over eventually in 2024. That’s out the window as McCarthy will miss the season injured, so journeyman Sam Darnold is the guy under centre. The Giants probably will be taking a QB high in the 2025 draft because Daniel Jones is clearly not the answer. Big Blue also lost star running back Saquon Barkley in free agency. New York likely will be one of the NFC’s worst teams with Minnesota not too far behind.

Point spread: Vikings -1

Pick ATS: New York

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

This otherwise rather mediocre matchup from the AFC West will get a lot of attention simply as it’s the NFL head coaching return of Jim Harbaugh, who of course led alma mater Michigan to last season’s national championship. But the Chargers are completely rebuilding offensively other than QB Justin Herbert, who didn’t play this preseason due to a foot injury but fully expected Week 1. Raiders coach Antonio Pierce named veteran journeyman Gardner Minshew as his starting QB, beating out second-year Aidan O’Connell. These teams split last year, each winning at home.

Point spread: Chargers -3.5

Pick ATS: Las Vegas

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

The Broncos released former Seahawks great QB Russell Wilson this offseason and will go with rookie Bo Nix, the sixth and last quarterback chosen in Round 1 of this year’s draft. Nix isn’t like most rookies as he’s 24 years old and his 61 career starts split across Auburn and Oregon were the most in NCAA history. It’s the head coaching debut of Seattle’s Mike Macdonald, who coordinated a terrific Baltimore defence last season. Future Hall of Fame coach Pete Carroll was gently forced out after a second straight 9-8 mark in 2023.

Point spread: Seahawks -6

Pick ATS: Seattle

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

This will be Tom Brady’s first regular-season game as FOX’s No. 1 analyst in the booth. The Cowboys had a lot of training camp drama with contract issues surrounding their two offensive superstars in Dak Prescott and wideout CeeDee Lamb, but Lamb recently got his money. Doesn’t appear if Prescott will before the season starts, meaning he could walk next winter. For some reason, Dallas brought back well past-his-prime running back Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason. Not really sure what owner/GM Jerry Jones is doing. Cleveland used five different QBs last year due to injury and snuck into the playoffs, but No. 1 Deshaun Watson is healthy now. Not the case for Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb, who starts the season on the PUP list.

Point spread: Browns -2.5

Pick ATS: Dallas (alternate line of +3)

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s the NFL debut of Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft who had one of the great seasons in NCAA history last year at LSU on the way to the Heisman Trophy. Also the Commanders head coaching debut of Dan Quinn, most recently the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator. The Bucs won the NFC South last year and are back pretty much intact.

Point spread: Bucs -3

Pick ATS: Tampa Bay (alternate line of -2.5)

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Sunday night game and a rematch of a wild-card matchup also at Ford Field on Jan. 14, won by the Lions 24-23. That ended Detroit’s nine-game playoff losing streak dating back decades, the longest such skid in NFL history. It was also Rams QB Matthew Stafford’s first game back in Detroit since being traded to Los Angeles ahead of the 2021 season for Jared Goff and draft picks. The Lions won that trade. The Rams’ defence surely will take a step back this year after losing future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald to retirement and trading linebacker and 2023 leading tackler Ernest Jones to Tennessee.

Point spread: Lions -3.5

Pick ATS: Detroit (alternate line of -3)

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers, Monday

A possible Super Bowl LIX preview. You are going to see the Jets in prime time a lot this season because of Aaron Rodgers. Of course, the four-time MVP suffered a season-ending injury in the 2023 opener just a few plays into his Jets debut. The Niners probably should have won Super Bowl LVIII in February but lost 25-22 in overtime to Kansas City. San Francisco’s best offensive lineman by far, left tackle Trent Williams, is in contract a dispute and could sit into the season. Superstar running back Christian McCaffrey didn’t play in the preseason due to injury but should be ready to go.

Point spread: 49ers -3.5

Pick ATS: New York

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