2024 NFL Odds: Here’s how the new kickoff rules will affect game totals

The NFL is back, but fans will notice one major change from the start as new kickoff rules are expected to bring higher scoring games while also being safer for players.

Under the old rules, players on the kicking team could start running downfield as soon as the ball was kicked. By the time the returning player caught the ball, the opposing team would be coming at him at full speed, leading to dangerous hits.

To avoid these hits, kick returners could call for a fair catch to make the play dead or not catch the ball at all. This led to the lowest kick return rate in NFL history in 2023 (21.8 per cent).

The new kickoff rules are based on the XFL format. Now the kickoff team can’t move until the ball has been caught or it hits the ground, giving the returning team more time to move the ball downfield.

So, how will the new kickoff rules impact game totals? Let’s dive deeper into it.

What are the new kickoff rules?

There are two purposes of the new kickoff rules. First, it will make the game safer and reduce injuries. And second, it will result in more kick returns. More kick returns means better field advantage and better field advantage will lead to more points.

Here’s a CliffsNotes version of the new kickoff rules:

• The ball will be kicked from the kicking team’s 35-yard line.
• Instead of lining up with the kicker, the other 10 players on the kicking team line up on the receiving team’s 40-yard line with five players on each side of the ball.
• At least nine players on the receiving team must line up between their 30 and 35-yard line.
• One or two players can stay back to catch the kick.
• Play will start when the ball is caught or hits the ground.
• Fair catches are not allowed.
• The ball must be returned if it lands between the end zone and the 20-yard line.
• If the ball bounces into the end zone, it must either be returned or downed in the end zone for a touchback, which puts the ball at the 20-yard line.
• If the kick reaches the end zone in the air, it must either be returned or downed there for a touchback, which puts the ball at the 30-yard line.
• If the kick does not reach the 20-yard line or it goes out of bounds, the return team gets the ball at the 40-yard line.
• The kicking team must declare onside kicks and they are only allowed in the fourth quarter.
• Penalties added to a kickoff will move the location of the ball, but not the location of the players.

Check out our bet guide for more on the new kickoff rule.

How could the new kickoff rule affect totals betting?

Outside of less injuries, the new kickoff rules will impact totals betting. As mentioned, the new rules will lead to more returns and better field position, so the returning team won’t need to cover as much ground to score. It will also lead to more possessions because it will take less time to score.

We just have to look at the XFL to see the impact these kickoff rules have on returns. In 2023, the XFL kickoff return rate was 97 per cent, over four times the NFL’s rate of 21.8 per cent.

The NFL only saw four kickoffs returned for a touchdown last season, the lowest number in 30 years. That number should drastically increase.

We won’t know exactly how much scoring will increase with the new rules until teams start playing, but game totals will undoubtedly rise.

We’ll also see prop bets affected, particularly anytime touchdown lines. The odds and payouts could shrink, but the tradeoff is that they should hit more often.

And of course, more scoring means higher game totals, so keep that in mind when betting Over/Unders.