2022 NFL MVP Odds, Prediction

With training camps and the preseason in the rearview mirror, it’s time to look ahead to the 2022 NFL regular season.  Before the season officially gets underway Thursday night with Buffalo facing the Super Bowl champion Rams in L.A., Sports Interaction is looking ahead to the MVP race and previewing the top contenders as well as some dark horse candidates.

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Josh Allen

There are high expectations in Buffalo this year for both the Bills as a whole and individually for quarterback Josh Allen.  Allen is coming off back-to-back strong seasons.  He threw for 4,407 yards and 36 touchdowns last year and he was also Buffalo’s second-leading rusher with 736 yards on the ground.  Allen led the charge to dismantle the Patriots in the wild card round of last year’s playoffs, before losing a heartbreaker in overtime against the Chiefs in the divisional round.  He will have multiple high-end pass targets to throw to in 2022 and the Bills’ elite defence should be able to get the ball back in his hands quickly.  Is this the year Allen finally breaks through and wins MVP?  It’s a regular season award, but if Allen can take Buffalo to the promised land and win a Super Bowl ring, it’s hard to see anyone else winning MVP.

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes will be in the MVP conversation for years to come and that’s no different in 2022.  Mahomes finished last season ranked fourth in both passing yards (4,839) and touchdowns (37).  The main concern when talking about Mahomes, who won the MVP in 2018, is the relatively untested chemistry between him and some of his new receiving targets.  Tight end Travis Kelce is still at his disposal, but he lost a major weapon when Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami.  Quickly developing chemistry with new additions JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie Skyy Moore will be key for Mahomes and the Chiefs this year.

Tom Brady

Tom Brady enters the season with the third-best odds to win his fourth career MVP at +667.  He would become just the third player to ever win four career MVPs (Aaron Rodgers has four, Peyton Manning has five).  Brady’s superhuman ability to seemingly not age helped the now 45-year-old lead the NFL in completions (485), attempts (719), yards (5,319) and touchdowns (43) last season.  It was the most yards he’s every thrown for in a season and the second-most touchdowns.  With the Buccaneers favoured to win the NFC, Brady will have every opportunity to pad his stats and have another monster year in Tampa Bay.

Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert dismantled opposing defences last season, throwing for 5,014 yards (second-best in NFL) and 38 touchdowns (third-best), despite the Chargers missing the playoffs.  The sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft has thrown for 30-plus touchdowns in his first two seasons and he will have a major upgrade in his supporting cast on both sides of the ball this year.  Herbert has two dangerous weapons in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, while running back Austin Ekeler will deflect a lot of defensive attention.

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers is looking to become just the second player ever to win three straight MVPs after Brett Favre did it with the Packers in 1995 through 1997.  The reigning back-to-back MVP completed 69.8 per cent of his passes over the last two seasons for 8,414 yards, 85 touchdowns and just nine interceptions.  To put it in perspective, 42 players threw more than nine interceptions during that stretch.  Like Mahomes, however, Rodgers enters this season with a lesser receiving core after Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders and Marquez Valdes-Scantling signed in Kansas City.  Green Bay brought in Sammy Watkins and drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs for Rodgers to target, but none of them are a true replacement for Adams.

Dark Horse Candidates

Lamar Jackson (+1500)

One of only two players to ever unanimously win MVP in 2019 (Brady did it in 2010), Jackson is in a contract year and will be more motivated than ever to have a monster season.

Derek Carr (+1800)

Coming off a career-high 4,804-yard season and a playoff appearance, Derek Carr could be poised to have another big year with Adams as a target.

Derrick Henry (+4100)

Derrick Henry is undeniably the best running back in the NFL and was less than 100 yards short of breaking the single-season rushing record in 2020.  If he can break the record this year, you would think that would be enough to win MVP.

2022 NFL MVP Prediction

Patrick Mahomes (+655).  After a heartbreaking overtime loss in last season’s AFC championship game, Mahomes will be on a mission to win and put up big numbers in 2022.