We said this when Penn State visited Ohio State a few weeks ago: No school got a bigger raw deal from the football divisions in the Big Ten than the Nittany Lions because they have been stuck in the same East Division as superpowers Ohio State and Michigan.

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Bet on Michigan vs. Penn State

Penn State has been arguably the second-best team in the Big Ten at least a few times the past handful of years but hasn’t reached the conference title game because it can’t beat the Buckeyes and Wolverines in the same season. PSU lost at Ohio State 20-12 on Oct. 21, so another loss here means PSU can forget about the Big Ten title game yet again. It is the last year for divisions.

Michigan could lose and still win the East for a third year in a row because it’s currently unbeaten and still plays Ohio State on Nov. 25 in Ann Arbor. The tiebreakers that far out are too complicated to explain.

UM leads the all-time series against PSU 16-10 and has won the past two. It was 41-17 last year in Ann Arbor when the Wolverines were ranked No. 5 and Lions No. 10. Michigan rushed for a whopping 418 yards on 7.6 yards per carry and four touchdowns. 

Michigan Wolverines

It’s quite possible that Michigan has played the weakest schedule of any Power 5 school with nary a ranked team faced yet. The Wolverines didn’t get caught in a lookahead trap Saturday when they blew out Purdue 41-13. QB and Heisman Trophy candidate JJ McCarthy threw for 335 yards, and running back Blake Corum had three scores on the ground. McCarthy is second in the NCAA in pass efficiency (188.7 rating) and Corum leads the nation in total TDs and rushing TDs (16). Michigan leads the country in scoring defence, total defence, pass defence and first-downs allowed. Purdue’s coach Ryan Walters acknowledged his team had to change signals on the sidelines ahead of the game because that former U-M staffer had illegally gained access to opponents’ play calls. Michigan is going to be punished but almost surely not until after this season. If the Wolverines win a national title, I fully expect Jim Harbaugh to say he’s had enough with the NCAA and return to the NFL as a coach – maybe in Chicago.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State ranks third nationally in scoring defence (11.9 ppg) and sixth in scoring offence (40.2 ppg). The Nittany Lions have played two ranked schools this year, thumping visiting Iowa and losing by eight at Ohio State. In a way, this game is a bit of a referendum on Coach James Franklin’s program and if he can lift it to the next level. The Lions were totally focused Saturday in winning 51-15 at a solid Maryland team. Drew Allar tied his career high with four touchdown passes. PSU’s excellent defence held Maryland to minus-49 yards rushing (fewest by any FBS team this season), had six sacks, 12 tackles for loss and forced four turnovers. Penn State has now won 44 of its past 45 games when leading by at least 10 at the half and is 8-0 since the start of last season in games with two or  more turnovers forced and none lost. This year, Penn State has not allowed a point in the third quarter (97-0 advantage). The Nittany Lions have held eight straight opponents under 100 rushing yards, the longest active streak in the nation.

Michigan vs. Penn State Score Prediction

Penn State 24, Michigan 23