San Diego State Aztecs vs. Ohio Bobcats: Frisco Bowl Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Dec 11, 2018

Ryan_Agnew_aztecs

The San Diego State Aztecs and Ohio Bobcats have been very hard to read this year. These teams have both registered impressive victories and suffered head-scratching defeats.

AT
December 19, 2018, 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Stadium
Ohio
8-4
Pointspread +2 -105
Moneyline +110
Over / Under o +48
Pointspread -2 -115
Moneyline -130
Over / Under u +48

This makes their bowl game a very uncertain proposition. This is a game which could break in any of several different directions.

Frisco Bowl Betting Analysis

The Aztecs and Bobcats went in totally different directions at the end of the season. The Aztecs lost four of five games, while the Bobcats won four of five. San Diego State played a series of very close games to end its season – its last five games were decided by single digits: four points, eight points, three points, nine points, and one point. Ohio’s last five games were decided by 38, 45, 2, 35, and 21 points, the two-point game being the Bobcats’ one loss in that stretch. Ohio covered the spread many times, while San Diego State hardly ever covered the spread in its last five games. This larger pair of trends is why Ohio is a small favorite in this game.

Both teams failed to reach their respective conference championship games, which means they will both enter this game with just under four full weeks of rest. There is no difference which will affect these teams from a betting standpoint.

San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs played to the level of their competition almost all season. They played Stanford close in the first two and a half quarters in Week 1 before getting blown off the field in the final 20 minutes. They did not blow out Sacramento State or San Jose State. They narrowly beat Arizona State and New Mexico. Teams they should have defeated by large margins were able to stay competitive for 60 minutes on a regular basis.

When the Aztecs lost, they lost to good teams such as Fresno State and Stanford, but they also lost to a mediocre Nevada team and an inconsistent Hawaii side. They also absorbed a terrible loss to a bad UNLV team at home. The Aztecs’ best game of the season was a road win at Boise State in which one of Boise State’s two touchdowns came on a drive which started at the SDSU 4-yard line. The defence was nearly perfect that day, and that is how SDSU wants to be able to play against Ohio. If the Bobcats score 27 points, the Aztecs aren’t likely to match that.

Ohio Bobcats

The Ohio end-of-season surge – with three wins by 35 or more points, and four wins by an average of just under 35 points – partially rescued a season which didn’t meet all of its goals. Ohio was the preseason favorite to win the MAC East Division, and it fell short because of the one game in its last five which didn’t go well, the 30-28 loss to Miami of Ohio. Had Ohio won that game, it would have won the MAC East.

The other MAC game Ohio lost was another game which slipped away, a 24-21 loss to MAC champion Northern Illinois in which it led 21-9.

Blowing leads was a problem for Ohio not just against Northern Illinois, but against Cincinnati. The Bobcats were up 24-7 at halftime and lost, 34-30. San Diego State is not a good passing team, but the Aztecs also have a strong defence which – after nearly a month of rest – could give the Bobcats problems.

Aztecs vs. Bobcats Prediction

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