NC State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns Bracket Prediction: March Madness First Four Odds
The NCAA Tournament follows up No. 16 UMBC vs. No. 16 Howard in the first First Four game with a compelling 11-seed play-in matchup between Texas and NC State. The game tips off at 9:15 p.m. ET on truTV from Dayton, Ohio, on Tuesday, March 17, 2026, with both teams hoping to extend their seasons after rough finishes.
Texas is in its first season under Sean Miller, while NC State returns to the tournament under new head coach Will Wade.
NC State is a 1.5-point favourite to win on the March Madness odds, with the total pegged at 161.5.
NC State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
This matchup features two top-20 KenPom offences and sub top-80 defences that have struggled late in the season, which helps explain the high 161.5 total. Texas ranks 13th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, while NC State relies heavily on perimeter scoring and ranks among the nation’s top three-point shooting teams.
Another key trend: NC State protects the ball extremely well, while Texas does not force many turnovers. That combination could allow the Wolfpack to run their offence comfortably and maximize their shooting opportunities from beyond the arc.
NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack achieved their preseason goal of landing in the top half of the conference and returning to March Madness after their memorable 2024 Final Four run. The ACC squad shoots a ridiculous 38.8 per cent from beyond the arc. That strength could be critical against a Texas defence that ranks near the bottom nationally in three-point defence percentage. The team’s scoring is balanced, with Darrion Williams, Quadir Copeland, Ven-Allen Lubin, and Paul McNeil Jr. all averaging roughly 14 points per game. Williams, who previously played in high-pressure NCAA Tournament games with Texas Tech, brings valuable postseason experience.
The Wolfpack lost six of their final seven regular-season games before winning once in the ACC Tournament. Defensive consistency has been the biggest issue, with the team ranking outside the top 70 nationally in efficiency since early February.
Texas Longhorns
Texas enters the tournament with strong underlying metrics. The Longhorns went 18-14 overall and 9-9 in SEC play, but lost five of their last six games, including an early, disappointing SEC Tournament loss to Ole Miss. The Longhorns do an excellent job of attacking the rim and drawing fouls. Dailyn Swain, a transfer who followed Sean Miller from Xavier, has been the centrepiece of the offence, averaging 17.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting better than 55 per cent from the field.
The Longhorns also have scoring depth. Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and centre Matas Vokietaitis all average between 13 and 15.5 points per game, giving Texas multiple offensive options. Against high-level competition, Texas’ defensive numbers have dropped dramatically, ranking outside the top 150 against Quad 1 opponents. If that trend continues, it could limit the team’s ability to survive beyond a single elimination game.
March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win NC State vs. Texas?
Texas has a massive edge on the glass and getting to the foul line, but NC State’s perimeter shooting and ball security serve as massive advantages in their own right.
If the Wolfpack gets hot from three-point range, it might be lights out for Texas. NC State’s ability to pressure the ball defensively could also create turnovers against a Longhorns team that has been inconsistent late in the season. With both teams capable of scoring, this could turn into a high-paced shootout.
Best Bet: NC State -1.5