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Jeremy Perry
Michigan St. vs. Kansas State Sweet 16 Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans are back in the Sweet 16. Should anyone really be surprised? Even though the Spartans are a No. 7, they helped Izzo notch his 15th career Sweet 16 appearance. Seeding seems to rarely matter with Izzo’s squads and that’s what the oddsmakers are telling us in their next matchup.
Michigan State vs. Kansas State Sweet Sixteen Point Spread and Betting
The Spartans opened as a dog but are now favored. They were 17-3 this season when favored and 11-9 ATS in those games. They were 15-11 against teams with a winning record and 5-4 in neutral court affairs.
As for Kansas State, they were 18-7 straight up and 17-7-1 against the spread when facing winning teams this season. They also covered five of six neutral site games this season and have covered nine of their last 11. They’ve also covered six of their last eight games overall.
Michigan St. Spartans
Senior guard Marquis Nowell makes this team go as he’s coming off a 27-point, nine-assist effort against the Kentucky Wildcats in the Round of 32. He’s been cooking in the tournament as he had 17 points and 14 assists in their opener. He’s the leader of an aggressive offense that is going to challenge a Spartans defense that has been just alright this season.
Taking a look at some metrics, the Spartans are 31st in the country in KenPom.com’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. That’s not bad but remember, there are just 16 teams left in the tournament. Also, Michigan State allows 0.79 points per possession, which isn’t great.
Kansas State Wildcats
The Spartans defense might not be great but it’s not as if Kansas State has been able to slow opponents this season. They were one of the worst in the Big 12 and were 122nd in point per possession in the country. Michigan State is 12-2 this season when scoring 70 points or more and it looks like they’ll have a good opportunity to get there.
The Wildcats benefited from 16 Kentucky turnovers in the last round but still only won by six points. They were outrebounded 44-25 and 19-4 at the offensive end. That’s concerning. Michigan State is a disciplined team that should win this game if they rebound well and aren’t as sloppy with turnovers as Kentucky was.
One bet you might want to take a look at is the over. The two teams combine to score 145.7 points per game, which is more than eight points above the current total. There might be value there as both teams should be at or above the 70-point mark.
