St. John’s (5) vs. Kansas (4) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
Two legendary coaches. Two elite defences. One Round of 32 East Region battle, taking place in San Diego, California, at Viejas Arena, tipping off at 5:15 PM ET on CBS. It’s No. 5 seed St. John’s, led by head coach Rick Pitino, vs. No. 4 seed Kansas, led by head coach Bill Self.
Potential No. 1 NBA Draft pick Darryn Peterson’s 28 points were the difference in Kansas’ eight-point win over Cal Baptist, while St. John’s completely dominated Northern Iowa, never trailing in the game. Baskets may be hard to come by in this one, so let’s break it down.
St. John’s vs. Kansas NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
The NCAA odds board has opened with St. John’s listed as a 3.5-point favourite.
This is a battle between two KenPom top-11 defences that get it done in completely opposite ways. St. John’s pressures the ball the whole way, forces a ton of turnovers and runs opponents off the three-point line, funneling everything into Zuby Ejiofor in the lane.
Kansas doesn’t force any turnovers but keeps you in front and takes away the paint, forcing contested three-pointers. And if opposing teams do get in the lane, they have to deal with Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Flory Bidunga, one of the best rim protectors in the country.
St. John’s Red Storm
Three weeks ago, Rick Pitino’s team shot 20% from the field against UConn in Hartford, went the final 17 minutes of the game without a field goal and lost by 32 points. I can’t exactly erase that performance from my mind.
Zuby Ejiofor is the guy, and it’s a fun matchup for him going up against Bidunga and because he transferred from Kansas a couple of years ago. Ejiofor won both Big East Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Bryce Hopkins is a double-double threat. Dillon Mitchell is a ludicrous athlete. Ian Jackson is a tough shotmaking guard. Joson Sanon is streaky but is capable of erupting for hot shooting, while Oziyah Sellers is crafty and secure in the backcourt.
St. John’s doesn’t shoot it well from beyond the arc, they don’t shoot it often from deep, either. They get to the free-throw line a ton, but Kansas is exceptional at playing defence without fouling. St. John’s best path to success is to out-physical Kansas on the glass. Kansas is not a good rebounding team on either end of the floor, and St. John’s is elite on the offensive glass. Kansas is really good at defending inside the arc, though.
Kansas Jayhawks
The problem the metrics have flagged all season is the offence. Outside of Peterson, Kansas struggled to generate much offence and convert chances against Cal Baptist. Tre White provides floor spacing with his 42% perimeter shooting and senior toughness, but went 3-of-10 and 0-of-4 from deep on Friday. Melvin Council Jr. runs the point with an efficient assist rate and lovely aggression, but after Friday, Council has now made just six field goals in his last 35 attempts. The bench depth behind the top four is thin.
Kansas prefers to shoot inside the arc, but is just 216th, shooting 51% from two. They don’t get to the foul line a ton, they shoot an okay 34.6% from three and they don’t offensive rebound. Their ceiling on offence is is completely dictated by Peterson’s play, and St. John’s philosophy will be key in on him, run him off the three-point line and make anyone else beat them. Council must be the one to step up.
Who Will Win Red Storm vs. Jayhawks?
It’s really difficult to see easy scoring paths for either team. Kansas’ best shot to win is an alien-like performance from Peterson, or Council snapping out of recent poor play and attacking the rim with efficiency. The best bet for St. John’s is a monster double-double from Ejiofor. I like both coaches’ defence to win out, but for the Red Storm to edge it 68-67