Arsenal vs. Manchester City EFL Cup Final Preview and Prediction
Wembley Stadium will once again host the Carabao Cup Final this Sunday at 12:30 p.m. ET. Although there is plenty of basketball with March Madness underway, Sunday’s tilt between Arsenal and Manchester City should have your attention. The No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the EPL will face off for silverware, as Arsenal aims to capture its first EFL Cup since 1993, while Man City will aim to collect its ninth EFL Cup overall and first since 2021.
These two teams are trending in different directions based on their recent results, so let’s dive into my Arsenal vs. Manchester City EFL Cup Final predictions.
Arsenal vs. Manchester City English Premier League Odds and Betting Trends
The historical records when these two squads go head-to-head are extremely close, as Arsenal has won 27, Man City has won 25, and there have been 12 draws in 64 meetings. However, the Citizens have the edge in the EFL Cup, winning four of the five meetings. For this game, Arsenal are -145 favourites to lift the cup, while Man City is a +110 underdog. The Over/Under is 2.5; the Over has -105 odds, while the Under carries a -125 price.
Although Pep Guardiola’s side has come out on top more often than not against Arsenal, they’ve struggled recently. The Gunners are unbeaten in their previous six matches against the Citizens, winning two and drawing four. Additionally, Arsenal is unbeaten in its last 14 contests in all competitions, with its last defeat coming on January 25, 2025, against Manchester United (3-2). The same cannot be said for City, who are just 1-2-2 in their last five, most recently losing to Real Madrid 2-1 in the Champions League.
Arsenal
Arsenal’s eyes are fully on the English Premier League title, but collecting one piece of silverware before then wouldn’t be the biggest issue in the world. Mikel Arteta’s men are playing like a machine, churning out results even when they haven’t played as their best. Although they’ve picked up back-to-back two-goal victories against Bayer Leverkusen and Everton, their previous four wins came by a single goal. The big reason Arsenal is winning across all competitions is their defence, and they’ve given up just seven goals in their last 10 games.
Viktor Gyokeres (+265) has the shortest odds to score for Arsenal, and he recently scored as a substitute in their 2-0 victory against Everton. The Swedish striker now has 16 goals and three assists in all competitions. I’m avoiding the goalscorer market for Arsenal in this one, though; only Gabriel Martinelli has more than one goal against City (two) in their last five meetings, and the Gunners have so many weapons that it’s hard to predict where the scoring will come from.
Manchester City
Although Manchester City was eliminated from the Champions League on Tuesday, Pep’s side can now fully focus on the EFL Cup final, FA Cup, and Premier League race. The last time they played in the final of this tournament was when they won it all in 2021, and I feel they’ll be motivated to take back the silverware this season. When facing Arsenal earlier this season, they held a 1-0 lead until Martinelli tied it in extra time to make the game level after 90 minutes. I expect a similar performance in this one and won’t be surprised if they can pull off the upset.
You can’t talk about Manchester City without mentioning Erling Haaland (+165 to score), who leads the Citizens with 43 goals and 10 assists in all competitions. He’s found the back of the net in three consecutive meetings with the Gunners. Although Haaland is the main man up front, new signing Antoine Semenyo has integrated into City’s squad well. The former Bournemouth man has seven goals and two assists in 13 starts for City.
EFL Cup Final Prediction: Who Will Win Arsenal vs. Manchester City?
This game is going to be extremely tight, and because of the international break, neither team will play again until April 4, so both managers will give everything in this game. I see value in sprinkling on the draw (+210), but my best bet will be Under 2.5 Goals (-125). I’m also going to take a nibble on City to win in penalty kicks at +850.
