St. John’s (5) vs. Duke (1) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Sweet 16 Odds
Rick Pitino vs. Duke in a Sweet 16 is as good as it gets from a college basketball branding and selling standpoint. And what could be better than the game tipping off at 7:10 p.m. ET from Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.?
Let’s break down our best bets for top-seed Duke vs. the underdog Red Storm.
The Blue Devils are 6.5-point favourites on the March Madness odds, with the total pegged at 142.5.
St. John’s Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
Duke is 20-16 against the spread (ATS) and 13-23 on Over/Unders this year. Since the ACC Tournament started, Duke is 2-3 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
St. John’s is also 20-16 ATS and 13-23 O/U. Since the Big East Tournament started, St. John’s is 4-1 ATS and 1-4 O/U. However, the Over has cashed in 10 of St. John’s last 13 meetings with ACC opponents, and it is 10-2 in Duke’s previous 14 games against the Big East.
St. John’s Red Storm (5)
The Big East regular season and tournament champion Red Storm dismantled a quality No. 12 seed in Northern Iowa in the opening round, 79-53. On Sunday, in a legendary Round of 32 matchup with Kansas and Bill Self, St. John’s was en route to their fifth straight double-digit postseason victory, leading the Jayhawks 56-42 with eight minutes remaining, before the Jayhawks mounted a dramatic last stand. Then, with less than four seconds left, St. John’s guard Dylan Darling, who hadn’t scored all game, called his own number and dribbled from half-court to the hoop and finished with his off hand at the buzzer to win 67-65.
In the Round of 64, St. John’s got it done on the glass, out-rebounding Northern Iowa 45-29. Against Kansas, they did it with their pressure defence, forcing 16 turnovers. The bench has also been productive through their two games. St. John’s has shot 21 of 64 (32.8 per cent) from three so far in the NCAA Tournament, which is just below their season average of 33.4 per cent. However, those 64 attempts have signalled a much higher three-point rate, showing their willingness and confidence in shooting the ball. To beat Duke, St. John’s will have to take and make threes.
Duke Blue Devils (1)
The ACC regular season and tournament champion Blue Devils mightily struggled to dispatch Gerry McNamara’s No. 16 seed Siena squad in the Round of 64, trailing by 11 at halftime, before pulling out a 71-65 victory. In the second round, TCU kept it to a four-point Duke lead at half. Duke then pulled away for an 81-58 win.
National Player of the Year favourite Cameron Boozer has had back-to-back quiet first halves before exploding for monster second halves in each game. Cayden Boozer was awesome against Siena, going for 19 points on 9-of-10 shooting, while Isaiah Evans has been consistent, scoring 16 and 17 points in the two games. Duke centere Patrick Ngongba II returned from injury to play against TCU, but point guard Caleb Foster remains out with an injury.
TCU wasn’t able to convert from three against Duke’s top-rated defence, which specializes in keeping the paint locked up, defending without fouling, and forcing deep, contested shots.
March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win St. John’s vs. Duke?
St. John’s No. 42 rated adjusted offensive efficiency does not align well with Duke’s defence because St. John’s really struggles to shoot the ball. But St. John’s, as evidenced by their win over Kansas, can muddy a game better than anyone. They are physical, they create organized chaos, and they are relentless.
Duke is live to turn the ball over, and especially with a freshman point guard in Cayden Boozer, St. John’s experienced defence will make life miserable for the young guards bringing the ball up. Duke’s incredible efficiency inside the arc and on the glass may negate some of St. John’s strengths, but the Johnnies are the far more grizzled and veteran squad, and I like them to pull off an incredible upset.
Best Bet: St. John’s +6.5 (-105)