Now things really get serious. The first two rounds featured plenty of drama, from comebacks, and close finishes, to unexpected results. Few would have believed that Purdue could possibly be a “one and done” squad, yet here we are.

The Sweet 16 round is where dreams start to become tangible. Everyone here has a couple of games under their belt and has proven that they belong. So what are some of the more intriguing propositions for Thursday and Friday’s games? Read on.

Sweet 16 Best Bets and Predictions

As always, don’t forget to check out our NCAA odds for individual games and our NCAA Futures for some bold predictions.

Michigan State (7) vs Kansas State (3) Prediction

Out of all the eight contests scheduled on Thursday and Friday, only two have a spread as close as -2/+2. There is the late game on Thursday between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the UCLA Bruins, and this one between the Michigan State Spartans and Kansas State Wildcats. The issue with spreads like this is that it’s incredibly easy to get tripped up by them.

In fact, those are the sort of final score discrepancies both Michigan State and Kansas State have been involved in. Pretty close games but not ones that were decided by a two-point basket in the dying seconds. The better bet here is taking one of the moneylines, preferably Michigan State.

Florida Atlantic (9) vs Tennessee (4) Prediction

The intriguing prop in this instance isn’t either of the moneylines or spreads, but rather the total. To be clear, neither of these schools was predicted to be in the final, but now that we are down to only 16 schools, the Tennessee Volunteers find themselves with the sixth-best odds at +837. The Owls lag behind at +3701.

The total for this contest has been predicted to be around 130.5. Looking at how Florida Atlantic has performed so far, it’s tempting to take the over. After all, the program can pride itself on the 31st-best offence in the country. However, the Volunteers sport the fourth-best defence in the nation. That isn’t to suggest that a terrific attack never overcomes a sound defence. Of course it can. But most often the reverse happens. The UNDER is interesting here.

Arkansas (8) vs UConn (4) Prediction

Each school’s trajectory has been quite different. Arkansas is far back behind UConn on the current Futures odds to win it all (+2480 to +740). On paper it would seem to be a mismatch, but so was Arkansas’ contest in round two against the defending champions Jayhawks, and look which of those two teams still stands.

This feels like one of those cases where one of two things will happen. First, arguably the least likely, is that the win over Kansas was a sign that the Razorbacks are the 2023 team of destiny and will oust another top contender for the college crown. The other possibility, the more likely one, is that the buck stops here. It’s like a lower-seeded team in the NBA or NHL playoffs that upsets a top seed, only to get slapped by reality in the next round. Arkansas has had a good run and impressed more than a few but taking UConn and the spread – only -3.5 – is tempting.

San Diego State (5) vs Alabama (1) Prediction

It would feel improper to do a Best Bets column entry without mention of any number one seed. After the whirlwind events of the past few days, there are only two of them remaining, so we might as well take advantage while we still can!

Given the nature of the 2023 edition of the NCAA tournament and the fates reserved for top-seeded schools, we won’t go ahead with any “nobody thinks San Diego St. is really going to…” In fact, this best bet is going to give the Aztecs some due credit. While they haven’t played the toughest opposition, their defence has been commendable. Playing Alabama will obviously be a much sterner test. The Crimson Tide has washed opponents aside with its fourth-ranked attack in the country. That said, taking SDSU +7 may not be as crazy as you’d think.

Miami (5) vs Houston (1) Prediction

The other remaining top seed is the Houston Cougars from the American conference. A week ago they had the very best odds at winning it all, but have since dropped to second behind the aforementioned Crimson Tide (+326 to Alabama’s +301). Still, they are a ferocious opponent to tussle with, meaning Miami has its work cut out for it on Friday night.

The total catches our attention in this game. It seems a little high at 138.0. It’s not that neither Miami or Houston can score, they certainly can. The Floridians were in fact the highest-scoring team in the ACC at 79.1. But the little-known Drake Bulldogs limited the Hurricanes to 63 points in the opening round. The Cougars are a far more rounded team, to say nothing of the fact that their American conference opponents could only muster a paltry 56.6 points on them per outing. Their first two opponents in the tournament, N. Kentucky and Auburn, only netted 52 and 64 points, respectively. This might prove to be a great game, but the under might be the play here.