Iowa (9) vs. Florida (1) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
The last day of the first weekend of March Madness 2026 is approaching, and we have a No. 9 vs No. 1 as Iowa takes on Florida, which tips off at 7:10 p.m. ET on TBS from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida.
Iowa led wire to wire in a 67-61 win over No. 8 seed Clemson on Friday night, while Florida did a little more than that, boasting the biggest rout of the opening round, taking out No. 16 seed Prairie View A&M, 114-55. Can Iowa star senior point guard Bennett Stirtz bounce back from an ugly shooting game and lead the Hawkeyes to a miracle victory? Let’s break it down.
The Gators are 10.5-point favourites to win on the March Madness odds, with the total set at 145.5.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
Iowa broke a nagging trend at the most important time of the season. The Hawkeyes were 0-5 when Stirtz shot under 40 per cent from the field… until their first round win over Clemson on Friday night. Kael Combs (15 points), Alvaro Folgueiras (14 points) and Tate Sage (seven points) stepped up and helped the Hawks get it done.
Iowa has struggled to play up all year, lacking in signature wins, but they did play Michigan extremely tough, losing 71-68. Michigan’s roster and size is about as close to Florida’s roster construction as it gets. The Michigan bigs got theirs, but the Hawkeyes forced 18 turnovers and had 26 points off those turnovers. That’s what they will need to do to stay in this game against Florida.
Iowa Hawkeyes (9)
Bennett Stirtz and head coach Ben McCollum go together like peanut butter & jelly. They have been together from D-II, to Drake last year, to Iowa in the Big Ten this year. Stritz was First-Team All Big Ten, averaging 20.2 points, 4.4 assists and shot 50 per cent from the field and 38 per cent from three while playing over 37 minutes per game. The concern with Stirtz on a quick turnaround is that he played all 40 minutes Friday night and has shouldered the load as “the guy” all year. Iowa isn’t all that deep, and now they take on a deep Florida team that got to play all its starters 25 minutes or fewer.
Iowa’s bodies being ready is my biggest concern. But there is something I really like in Iowa’s favour here. Iowa’s defence ranks 15th nationally at forcing turnovers, and Florida’s guards have been questionable at times this year, and the Gators rank 156th at taking care of the ball. Stirtz will be the best guard on the floor, and Iowa will need to mimic what they did against Michigan to stay inside the number and potentially pull off the big upset.
Florida Gators (1)
For Florida, the game plan should be pretty simple: feed the bigs and shut down Stirtz. Clemson forced a 4-for-17 shooting game from Stirtz. Tomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu may be the best front-court in the country, and Iowa’s centre, Cam Manyawu, stands just 6’8.”
Michigan’s three-headed front-court monster combined for 46 points on 17-for-25 shooting in Iowa City. Florida’s bigs will do that with ease, but they need to take care of the rock and make sure Iowa can’t get easy buckets in transition. Iowa plays at the 350th-ranked pace, and even though Florida wants to get up and down, it will be best off keeping Iowa as slow as possible. Florida’s losses this year came in their higher turnover games, and the matchup with Iowa reminds me of their December loss to an undersized TCU team. The difference was the 19 turnovers TCU forced, and the 22 points TCU scored off those turnovers.
March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win Iowa vs. Florida?
Florida wins the game. The rest they were able to work in on Friday, their depth and their size are too much in the end. Iowa makes this interesting though, with the ultimate display of effort. Iowa should force enough turnovers to make this interesting, hanging around 8-10 points. Let’s go with the Gators to prevail 76-68.