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Jeremy Perry
Providence (10) vs. Texas A&M (7) Odds: March Madness Prediction
Texas A&M is one of the record eight SEC teams that made the NCAA Tournament this year. As a result, they’ll face Providence in the Round of 64, their first Big East opponent of the season. Providence is fresh off an impressive run in the Big East Tournament, losing in overtime to Villanova in the conference final. Can they carry that momentum into March Madness?
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Against the spread this season, Texas A&M was 13-16. The Aggies had a 29 RPI. Their strength of schedule received a big boost from the fact that the SEC put eight teams into the NCAA Tournament this year, a record for that conference. The SEC had previously been fortunate to put as many as five teams in. This year marked a big leap for the conference.
Providence was 14-18 ATS this season. The Friars have a 32 RPI. Their strength of schedule was solid because they played Villanova and Xavier, two number one seeds, three times apiece. Their calling card was a strong showing in the Big East tournament but they weren’t THAT good throughout the year. We’ll see if they can continue those performances in the Big Dance.
Providence Friars
Providence has had great guards over the years. Bryce Cotton in 2014, Kris Dunn in 2016, and now Kyron Cartwright. He might not be quite in the same class as Cotton or Dunn, but he played well in the Big East Tournament. He had 19 points and six assists in an overtime loss to Villanova. His advantage against the Texas A&M backcourt is the best reason to favor the Friars in this game.
Providence shoots only 33.3 percent from three-point range, not much better than A&M. The key point to make is that A&M has two players which average at least 8.8 rebounds per game. That means this team needs to hit their open looks. If Providence can’t hit its first jump shot in a halfcourt possession, the odds are good that A&M will get the defensive rebound. Providence needs Cartwright to create very open looks for teammates. Rodney Bullock is the leading scorer for the Friars at 14 points per game. He will be the go-to option for Providence if Cartwright can’t get all the way to the him with dribble drives.
The good news is Texas A&M doesn’t hit free throws very well and is quite giving with turnovers. While the Aggies will dominate the extra opportunities from the boards, Providence will find other ways to manufacture more chances if they need them
Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies had a No. 1 seed-level resume on Christmas Day before losing five straight and seven of nine. They rebounded to win seven of their last 11 and make the Tournament as a No. 7 seed.
They have a strong, powerful frontcourt of Tyler Davis and Robert Williams. Davis has great size, Williams excellent leaping ability. This is one of the best frontcourts in the NCAA Tournament and few teams will be able to out-rebound them. They’re strong in that realm as well as protecting their own rim.
The good news is that Providence isn’t that. They have OK defense on the inside but they’re mostly better at protecting the arc than the basket. This feels like a game where rebounding and second-chance points are going to be the difference and Texas A&M has the edge in both regards.
