UCLA (7) vs. UConn (2) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
One team had an inspiring first-round win, the other, well, not so much. It’s No. 7 seed UCLA taking on No. 2 seed UConn in the Round of 32 in the East Region, tipping off at 8:45 PM ET on TNT, live from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. UCLA managed to win on the East Coast and do so without star player and leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (17.6 PPG). UConn, meanwhile, survived No. 15 seed Furman, 82-71. Tarris Reed Jr. absolutely carried the Huskies, recording 31 points and 27 rebounds.
UCLA vs. UConn NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
In the Big Ten Tournament last week, UCLA finally proved it could win away from the West Coast, but Bilodeau went down against Michigan State. Heading into their opening game against UCF, the thought was that Bilodeau would be back from his knee strain, and seemingly everyone took UCLA to advance. They managed to advance without him.
Similarly, UConn starting point guard Silas Demary Jr. was surprisingly held out of UConn’s opening win after sustaining an injury in the Big East Tournament. If neither plays, I think I like UConn, but if Bilodeau is back and Demary remains out, I like UCLA.
The NCAA odds board opened with UConn set as a 4.5-point favourite.
UCLA Bruins
UCLA has been one of the nation’s hottest teams since late February, and carrying that momentum into the tournament with elite point guard play from Donovan Dent, they have been a popular pick to advance past UConn and go on a run. Bilodeau’s status is obviously extremely important, but Trent Perry and Skyy Clark have stepped up big time alongside Dent in the backcourt, making a very dynamic group.
The defence does rank outside the top 50 in KenPom adjusted efficiency, but they don’t allow much inside, with the 36th-lowest near-proximity attempt rate.
The stylistic concern is that Cronin teams can sometimes play conservatively enough offensively to get stuck in low-scoring games where a hotter perimeter team runs past them, but UConn isn’t a terrifying threat in that regard, sitting middle of the pack in three-point rate and percentage.
UConn Huskies
Two-time national champion and senior, Alex Karaban, is the emotional leader and engine of this Huskies team. Head coach Dan Hurley has called him the smartest player he has ever been around, and he came through to support Reed Jr. on Friday night with 22 points, hitting some clutch threes running off beautiful Hurley action.
Reed Jr. is as dominant a rebounder as there is in college basketball, clearly putting that on display with 27 on Friday night, anchoring an interior defence that ranks top 10 nationally in opponent two-point shooting and block percentage. Solo Ball is the X-factor. After shooting over 40% from downtown last year, he has dipped to 30% this year and was just 3-of-12 on Friday night.
The Huskies rank top 10 in assists per game and assist-to-field goal percentage. Nothing goes to waste, but they also struggle to isolate and create on their own. They depend on Hurley’s offence, and nobody can score three-levels at will off the dribble.
Who Will Win Bruins vs. Huskies?
The level of anger and frowning in a game between Mick Cronin and Dan Hurley may be too much to bear. And that makes it a must-see TV drama. I don’t think these teams are as far apart as their seed lines suggest, but I do trust UConn’s guys to come through in crunch time, and I like Ball, Karaban or freshman Braylon Mullins to heat up against UCLA’s pack-line defence. Eventually, UCLA won’t be able to deny Reed touches every trip down, and he will start to get going and open things up. UConn just has to knock down some shots. I like UConn’s defence to limit UCLA’s perimeter play and for the Huskies to win 70-64.