2019 NCAA Tournament Predictions: March Madness First Round Upsets

If you want to win your NCAA Tournament office pool, it’s important to nail a few upset in Rounds 1 and 2 – but generally stop there. For the most part, double-digit seeds don’t get past the Sweet 16. And just five double-digit seeds have reached the Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (now 68). None of those five won in the national semifinals. The worst-seeded school to cut down the nets was a No. 8 seed.

No. 12 Will Beat A No. 5

Don’t bother picking a No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1. It has happened just once, last year when UMBC upset No. 1 overall seed Virginia – but then Virginia has a history of choking in the NCAA Tournament under Tony Bennett. UVA was a 20.5-point Sports Interaction favourite yet was clobbered 74-54. UMBC had 53 points in the second alone. No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament’s first round are now 135-1.

It’s generally not wise to pick a No. 15 seed to knock off a No. 2, either. It has happened only eight times in 136 games. It last happened in 2016 when Middle Tennessee upset Michigan State – a game that was never much in question. In all eight 15 over 2 upsets, the No. 15 seeds shot more free throws.

The most common first-round major upset is a No. 12 over a No. 5. There have been 47 upsets by 12 seeds in the first round since the Big Dance expanded in 1985. In addition, a 12 seed has won at least one first round game in 29 of the last 34 years. Last year, all four did!

Here is one upset pick per region in the first round with Sports Interaction’s NCAA basketball odds.

No. 14 Yale vs. No. 3 LSU (-8), East Region

The Tigers haven’t been the same since Coach Will Wade was suspended indefinitely for alleged recruiting violations caught on an FBI wiretap. There’s been no indication Wade will be back for the NCAA Tournament. LSU lost its conference tournament opener to Florida, and it should be noted no school has ever won a national title after losing a conference tournament opener.  As one might expect from an Ivy League school, Yale doesn’t beat itself. It has wins over Power 5 conference schools California and Miami this season. Led by Miye Oni, the Bulldogs are an excellent offensive team.

No. 12 Murray State vs. No. 5 Marquette (-4.5), West Region

The best individual matchup of the first round is from this game between Murray State’s Ja Morant, who will be a Top 5 pick (maybe No. 2 overall after Zion Williamson) in the 2019 NBA Draft, and Marquette star and Big East Player of the Year Markus Howard. If you haven’t seen the 6-foot-3 Morant, that guy has amazing leaping ability (he dunks like no other) and averages 24.6 points and 10.0 assists. Not even sure why Marquette is favoured here as it lost five of its final six games, with Howard playing through a wrist injury. He’s averaging 25.0 points on the season but was an incredibly bad 1-for-15 from the field in a Big East Tournament loss to Seton Hall.

No. 12 New Mexico State vs. No. 5 Auburn (-6.5), Midwest Region

Check out our March Madness Cinderella story as we picked NMSU as a great candidate to win a few rounds in the Midwest Region. The Aggies enter on a 19-game winning streak. Auburn is rolling right now but has been proven to be a very streaky team and thus perhaps due a bad game. NMSU is one of the deepest teams in the tournament and could wear the Tigers down.

No. 11 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 6 Villanova (-5.5), South Region

The Wildcats begin their national title defence against a Saint Mary’s team that stunned Gonzaga for the West Coast Conference Tournament title – and Gonzaga is much better than Villanova this year. The Wildcats have two excellent players in Phil Booth and Eric Paschall but not much behind them. When one struggles, the Cats lose. In three of Saint Mary’s past four NCAA Tournament appearances, the Gaels have advanced at least one round.