This is the fifth and final regular-season meeting between the top two teams in the West, with San Antonio holding a 3-1 edge so far. The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder are on the road and playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they did snap back emphatically last time out, crushing the Spurs 119-98 on January 13. 

This may be the last scheduled meeting, but it could be the Western Conference Finals matchup in a couple of months. The Thunder have a few key pieces sidelined, and the Spurs could be without their most productive piece in this matchup so far this season. Get my breakdown and best bets below.

Thunder vs. Spurs NBA Betting Odds

The NBA odds for tonight’s matchup are extremely tight and can be seen below:

• Point Spread: Thunder -1.5 (-110) vs. Spurs +1.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Thunder (-120) vs. Spurs (+100)
• Point Total: Over 222.5 (-110) / Under 222.5 (-110)

This line respects San Antonio at home. The Thunder are 30-7 against Western Conference opponents and boast the NBA’s top-ranked defence. San Antonio has gone 6-3 in its last nine games and is 5-1 in its previous six at home, but its offence has dipped to 25th in efficiency over the last 15 games. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, remains in the top five on both ends over that same stretch, even during a “cooling off” period. This is the shortest spread for the Thunder this year.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Despite missing key rotation pieces, the Thunder continue to look like the league’s most complete team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in MVP form, averaging 31.8 points and 6.4 assists, and he torched San Antonio for 34 points in the most recent meeting. Yes, Oklahoma City is on the second night of a back-to-back, but the blowout win over Orlando allowed the starters to conserve energy, with Luguentz Dort the only starter to play 30+ minutes. 

While Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell are sidelined (they combined for 31 points in the win over the Spurs), the Thunder get a major defensive boost with Luguentz Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein available this time. Bench contributors like Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Alex Caruso, and Kenrich Williams have stepped up, so OKC won’t lose its lineup flexibility.

San Antonio Spurs

Stephon Castle is questionable again, and he’s averaged over 21 points per game against the Thunder this season. Victor Wembanyama continues to dominate both ends of the floor and has scored 25 or more in five of his last eight games, but Oklahoma City did a far better job crowding him last time out.

The Spurs defence has been elite lately, ranking second over the last 15 games, but the recent offensive display does signal that San Antonio is due for some losses against top-tier competition. Against the league’s No. 1 defence, that imbalance is concerning, especially if perimeter shooting regresses to their 23rd-ranked 34.6 per cent mark from deep. The Spurs have managed to shoot 39.5 per cent from deep against the Thunder through four games.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Thunder vs. Spurs?

This is a spot where belief matters. Oklahoma City is unlikely to lose four times in one season to the same team. The Thunder figured out how to wall off the paint and slow San Antonio’s transition game in the last meeting, and they’re better equipped defensively tonight than they were in prior losses.

Shai’s shot creation, OKC’s depth, and a likely shooting regression from the Spurs tilt this matchup. Back-to-back trends be damned, at this short number, the Thunder are the play.

Best Bet: Thunder -1.5

THUNDER

Away

113

SPURS

Home

108

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