Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 6 Prediction, NBA Playoff Odds

Nik Kowalski | Updated May 18, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks can complete an upset of the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder when they meet in Game 6 Saturday evening.

May 18, 2024, 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
Pointspread +3.5 -110
Moneyline +140
Over / Under o +208.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -3.5 -110
Moneyline -165
Over / Under u +208.5


Betting Action


Dallas re-took the series lead Thursday with a gutsy 104-92 win that included a legendary Luca Doncic performance. The Dallas superstar recorded his sixth career playoff triple-double by scoring 31 points to go with 11 assists and 10 rebounds. 

In a series featuring several all-world scorers, just getting to 100 points as a team has been one of the keys to victory. Three times this series the losing team has finished in the 90s for scoring, and the winning team has registered 105 or fewer points three times as well. 

Tip-off for Game 6 at American Airlines Center goes at 8 p.m. EDT with the home Mavericks a -175 moneyline favourite to close out the series and the over-under set at 209.5 on the NBA odds.

Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Playoff Betting Odds

Another Oklahoma City Thunder playoff game, another under. In nine Thunder playoff games this season, the under is 7-2 and seven times the losing team has finished under 100 points. The concern is that in Game 5, the Thunder were held to under 100 points for the first time. 

Oklahoma City’s had a bunch of success both on the road and in Dallas though, going 3-1 on the road in the post-season overall and covering in six of their last eight trips to Dallas. OKC is also 10-5 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Mavericks. The winner of every game this series has also covered the spread.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can’t do it all by himself, as proven again in Game 5’s loss for OKC. Gilgeous-Alexander had a strong night with a team-high 30 points on 12 of 22 shooting from the field but after him, no other Thunder player had more than 13 points. OKC as a team shot 42.5 per cent from the field and hit 10 of their 40 three-pointers, and got out-rebounded 46-33.

The other concern is that in their biggest game of the year, this young and unexperienced Thunder squad laid an egg. Oklahoma City made a starting lineup change in Game 5 to with Isaiah Joe replacing Josh Giddey at the shooting guard position. Ironically, Joe had six points and shot two of nine from the field in 22 minutes and Giddey scored 11 points in 12 minutes. Expect Giddey to get back into OKC’s starting rotation in this do-or-die scenario.

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic’s scoring struggles was a trending storyline throughout this series, but the injured superstar may have put all the bad press to rest in Game 5. Doncic’s 31 points, and triple-double, carried Dallas to victory on the road and they’re now on the same trajectory as last round: split the first two road games, split their two home games, and then go on to win Game 5 and close out the series in Game 6 on the road.

With secondary scorers often being the extra push that’s needed to win games, the Mavs got the boost from an unlikely source in Game 5: Derrick Jones Jr. The 27-year-old had a career-high 19 points in the win. P.J. Washington Jr., who’s been an absolute force this series, also contributed with 10 points and 10 rebounds. And we’re due for a big Kyrie Irving performance — just saying.

Game 6 Prediction: Who Will Win Thunder vs. Mavericks?

NBA Predictions