Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 3 Prediction, NBA Playoff Odds

Nik Kowalski | Updated May 10, 2024

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks are back even as the series heads over to Dallas for Game 3 Saturday afternoon.

AT
May 11, 2024, 3:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
Dallas
50-32
Pointspread +1.5 -105
Moneyline +105
Over / Under o +216.5

0%

Betting Action

48%

Pointspread -1.5 -115
Moneyline -130
Over / Under u +216.5

0%

Betting Action

48%

Dallas’ 119-110 victory Game 2 didn’t come easy — just ask Luka Doncic. The Mavs superstar battled through pain, heckling fans, and a Thunder team that was trailing not far behind all game but in the end Luka got the last laugh with a 29-point, 10-rebound, and seven-assist performance. 

Game 2 was the first time Oklahoma City lost this post-season and the first time they surrendered over 100 points. The inexperienced Thunder have yet to face much adversity, so heading to Dallas for two games in a 1-1 series will be one of their toughest feats yet.

Tip-off at American Airlines Center for Game 3 gets started at 3:30 p.m. EDT with the Mavericks a -150 moneyline favourite on home court and the total set at 219.5 on the NBA odds.

Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Playoff Betting Odds

The Thunder aren’t the same team on the road. It starts with their 26-17 record all season long, and then a 21-21-1 record against the spread. OKC is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road outings too, while Dallas is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. Five straight Thunder–Mavericks contests played in Dallas have finished over the total.

In Dallas’ eight playoff games the winner has covered every single time. The over’s hit in four of Dallas’ last five playoff games with Game 1 against the Thunder being the only time the total went under. Dallas has hit at least 110 points in four of their last five playoff outings. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC either needs to find an answer for defending Dallas’ three-point shooting, or improve their own. The three-ball made the difference in Game 2 as Dallas hit 18 threes and shot 48 per cent, and the Thunder only 10 while shooting 33 per cent. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander again led the Thunder with 33 points but without any surge from deep it was a loss the Thunder were playing catch-up in throughout.

Rookie big man Chet Holmgren has struggled to knock down his threes in the post-season, going five for 22 in OKC’s last four outings. Holmgren’s averaging 15.2 points per game in the playoffs but as seen in Game 2, it can’t just be the likes of Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams producing if the Thunder find themselves in a back-and-forth game. 

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are going through a bit of déjà vu. Last round, Dallas went on the road to start the series and got a split after a Game 2 win. The Mavs went on to split their two home games, making this go-around a chance to right a wrong. 

Dallas got the split large in part to a courageous Luka Doncic outing, but also a stellar shooting performance from P.J. Washington. The Mavs forward tied Doncic in Game 2 with a team-high 29 points, and Washington drained seven of his 11 three-point attempts. Tim Hardaway Jr. also contributed 17 points off the bench — the type of secondary scoring Dallas needs to take this club to the next level.

Game 3 Prediction: Who Will Win Thunder vs. Mavericks?

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