Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Prediction, NBA Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated Apr 11, 2024

NBA: Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors play the first of two straight games in Miami on Friday night to close their season against the playoff-bound Heat.

April 12, 2024, 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread +14.5 -115
Moneyline +675
Over / Under o +220.5
Pointspread -14.5 -105
Moneyline -1100
Over / Under u +220.5

Miami opened as favourites to win, but the NBA odds are a bit in flux depending on how many guys they and the Raptors might rest.

Raptors vs. Heat NBA Betting Odds

It’s almost easy to forget that Miami is the defending Eastern Conference champion after upsetting Boston in the 2023 East Finals. Can’t say I see a repeat of that in 2024. The Heat will play extra basketball but from the play-in tournament. They will finish either seventh or eighth and probably see Philadelphia in that 7 vs. 8 game with the winner advancing as the East’s No. 7 seed and the loser hosting the 9 vs. 10 winner between Chicago and Atlanta for the No. 8 seed. Miami also was in the play-in last year, losing in the 7 vs. 8 game to Atlanta but then beating Chicago for the final spot.

Toronto is simply playing for pride at this point ahead of the season finale also in Miami on Sunday. Think some of the players might enjoy South Beach on Friday and Saturday nights? The Heat and Raptors split two early-season meetings in Toronto, each club winning by at least nine points. Miami leads the all-time series 60-42 and 35-16 as the home team.

The Raptors are 6-4 in the past 10 meetings overall and 7-3 against the spread. The under has hit in four of the past five.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors played well on Wednesday night to start their final road trip of the season but couldn’t hold a lead and lost 106-102 in Brooklyn in the Nets’ home finale. They outscored the Dinos by seven points in the fourth quarter when Toronto was 7-for-22 from the field and had six shots blocked. The Raptors were dominated in the paint overall.

“Their length, their size versus our size, obviously we knew going into the game they had a couple of guys that are really good with that,” Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic said. “We were able to get in the paint but not able to score.”

Per usual, the Raptors were very short-handed with the likes of RJ Barrett, Gary Trent Jr. and Kelly Olynyk all sitting in the second of a back-to-back. Seldom-used Malik Williams got the start for Olynyk and had seven points and 14 rebounds in 24 minutes. Immanuel Quickley scored 32 points to lead Toronto while adding nine assists and seven rebounds, and rookie Gradey Dick had career highs with 24 points and six three-pointers. Not clear who may or may not play Friday in another meaningless game. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 games.

Miami Heat

The Heat were thumped 111-92 at home vs. Dallas on Wednesday playing without guards Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson. Anyone remotely injured for Miami surely will not play Friday or Sunday vs. Toronto ahead of next week’s play-in tournament wherever the Heat end up seeded. Wednesday’s loss made it much more likely that it will be as the No. 8 seed and visiting most likely No. 7 Philadelphia.

Bam Adebayo is one of the top big men in the East but really struggled vs. Dallas with just eight points and three rebounds in 30 minutes. His 42 double-doubles this season are a career high. Tyler Herro, recently back from injury, led with 21 points and has hit at least one three-point field goal in 32 straight games, tying a career high. Miami is again a very good defensive team, ranking fourth in allowing 108.5 ppg and has held its opponent under its season average in 20 consecutive games. The Heat are 13-1 this season when holding clubs under 100 points. They are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 at home.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Raptors vs. Heat?

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