Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 6 Prediction: NBA Playoff Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated May 16, 2024

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets are one win away from punching their ticket to the Western Conference Finals as they head to Minnesota looking to eliminate the Timberwolves in Game 6 on Thursday.

Denver
57-25
AT
May 16, 2024, 8:30 PM ET
Target Center
Minnesota
56-26
Pointspread +2.5 -115
Moneyline +110
Over / Under o +205.5

0%

Betting Action

23%

Pointspread -2.5 -105
Moneyline -130
Over / Under u +205.5

0%

Betting Action

23%

After being thoroughly outplayed through the first two games of this series, the Nuggets have stormed back to hand Minnesota their first three game losing streak of the season. Coming off a 112-97 win in Game 5 on Tuesday, Denver has two chances to knock off the T-Wolves, starting with Game 6 on Thursday.

Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point favourite to win on the NBA odds, with the total set at 204.5.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves NBA Betting Odds

Outside of Game 5, home court hasn’t been very advantageous in this series, with the road team winning the first four games. One trend that continued Tuesday concerns the total. The Nuggets and Timberwolves have faced each other nine times over the regular season and playoffs this year and all of Minnesota’s four wins in that span have played the Under, while all five of Denver’s wins have hit the Over.

The Nuggets enter Game 6 as -500 favourites on the series line. The T-Wolves are +375 to complete a comeback, which is tempting when you consider how dominant they were in Games 1 and 2. The exact series result sees Denver winning in six games at +110, Denver winning in seven at +150 and Minnesota in seven at +375.

The NBA futures board has the Nuggets with the second-shortest championship odds at +225, while Nikola Jokic has the second-shortest Finals MVP odds at +250. Minnesota is +1800 to win the NBA championship with Anthony Edwards sitting at +2000 to win Finals MVP.

Denver Nuggets

It’s no surprise that three-time league MVP Jokic led the way in Game 5, dropping 40 points, seven rebounds and 13 assists. Five Nuggets players hit double digit points, including Aaron Gordon, who had 18 points and 10 boards. Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope each finished with 16 points. Michael Porter Jr. struggled, however, shooting just 2-for-10 and finishing with six points. Porter has essentially been a non-factor in the series, leading to an increased role for Christian Braun.

The big difference for Denver over the last few games has been their ability to solve Minnesota’s paint defence, led by four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. Jokic cut through the Timberwolves’ defensive scheme to shoot 15-for-22 from the floor in Game 5. Jokic vs. Gobert is a key battle that likely will determine this series.

Minnesota Timberwolves

This series isn’t nearly over as Minnesota has already proven they can beat Denver two games in a row. Edwards, who is averaging 30.6 points per game in the playoffs, was quieter in Game 5, finishing with 18 points and nine assists. Edwards went 5-for-15 from the floor with four turnovers. Karl-Anthony Towns had a team-high 23 points, while Gobert put up 18 points and 11 rebounds. Point guard Mike Conley Jr. missed the game with a sore Achilles tendon, which he suffered on the final possession of Game 4. Conley’s status for Game 6 hasn’t been announced.

Two key things need to happen for the Timberwolves to have a shot in this series. Edwards needs to get back to the form that saw him drop 43 points in Game 1 and 44 points in Game 4, and Gobert needs to slow down, if not shut down, Jokic. Gobert has the tougher job, but if Edwards can solve the double teams Denver is throwing at him, Minnesota can still win this series.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 6?

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