The San Antonio Spurs-Denver Nuggets series has turned on a dime. Through the first three games, it looked like the Denver Nuggets were on the ropes. In the last two games, Denver has dominated and has taken control of the series. Can the Spurs find some solutions in Game 6 and extend this series one more game?

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Denver wasn’t an outstanding team on the road in the regular season by any means, posting a 20-21 record. The Nuggets managed to split the first two road games in this series. However, Denver is just 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games following an ATS win. The Nuggets are also 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday night games.

San Antonio is just 6-13-1 against the spread in its last 20 games following an ATS loss. The Spurs are 4-9 ATS overall in their last 13 games. Despite the strong home record overall, San Antonio is also just 1-6 against the spread in its last seven home games heading into Game 6.

Denver Nuggets

Game 5 played out just as we suggested. We had said that if Jamal Murray gets going and the Nuggets get help from anyone other than Nikola Jokic, it wouldn’t be much of a game. That’s what happened as Murray had 23 points while six other players also scored in double figures.

Game 6 will go the same way as long as the Nuggets can maintain this type of effort. In Games 1-3, it was dicey. However, Murray has caught fire and he’s been the catalyst for the team. He’s averaging 23.5 points per game over the last two contests with 6.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 3.5 three-pointers. We’ve finally seen guys like Will Barton, Malik Beasley and Monte Morris start to hit their shots as that trio combined for 38 points off the bench. No one from the Spurs bench scored more than seven points in the last game.

The question is whether the Nuggets can maintain this level of play on the road. They’re finally looking like the No. 2 seed but they’re going to get a big effort from San Antonio. Can this young team seal the deal and push them out the door or will they need a Game 7 back at home to do so?

San Antonio Spurs

In order for a Game 7 to happen, the Spurs need their shooters to get going. DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge were a combined 13-of-28 form the field in Game 6. Everyone else was 24-of-62 (38.7%). Rudy Gay and Bryn Forbes went a combined 4-of-15 from the field for 10 points and no one from the bench shot anywhere near 50%.

This series has mostly been based around what Denver’s offense does or doesn’t do. San Antonio’s offense is challenged. They’ve averaged 103.5 points per game in this series. It’s Denver who has fluctuated in the wins and losses, averaging 113.0 in the wins versus 102 in the losses. The Spurs have to slow them down or this series is over.