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Andrew Rogers
Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 5 Prediction: NBA Playoff Odds, Point Spread
Being down 3-1 in a best-of-seven series would be unnerving for most professional sports teams – but not the Denver Nuggets, who have become experts at it. The Nuggets will look to stage their third straight series rally beginning Saturday night as they resume the Western Conference final against the L.A. Lakers in the Orlando bubble. The Lakers escaped with a 114-108 win in Game 4 to close to within a win of their first NBA Finals berth since 2010.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
After a rather unsatisfying Game 4 push, the Lakers are right back at -6 for Saturday’s fifth game. The Nuggets have been one of the top against the spread (ATS) teams throughout the NBA playoffs, and come into this one at 11-3-1 against the number in their last 15 games overall. And that’s got Sports Interaction bettors leaning heavily toward the underdogs, with a whopping 80 percent of respondents taking the Nuggets and the points entering Saturday.
The total is exactly where it sat for Game 4 at 214.5; the teams have gone 3-1 O/U so far in the series, and are 6-1 O/U in their previous seven meetings overall. Sports interaction bettors are riding this trend into the weekend, with 83 percent taking the O214.5. But the Nuggets are still 8-4 to the Under in their previous 12 games overall despite the Over trend in the conference final, and are 2-3-1 O/U in the six elimination games they’ve played prior to Saturday.
Denver Nuggets
Both teams have been rather unhappy with the game-by-game foul shot disparities – and this time, the Nuggets doth protest, with head coach Mike Malone disappointed that his team was out-shot 35-23 by the Lakers from the stripe Thursday. Malone specifically referenced his star guard, Jamal Murray, getting knocked to the floor multiple times in Game 4 without a foul being called. The Lakers’ LeBron James and Anthony Davis both shot 14 free throws Thursday.
Los Angeles Lakers
If you’re looking for a great early bet to jump on, consider anything involving the Lakers in the opening quarter. They’ve been off to a blistering start in this series, averaging better than 32 first-quarter points per game; that goes in sync with the regular season, where they ranked second in first-quarter scoring league-wide. Taking the Lakers at -189 to be ahead after 12 minutes might not offer a great payout, but it feels like one of the safer plays of the night.
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LAL