Hello, dear readers! Welcome to another edition of NBA Best Bets, in which SIA usually highlights statistical trends that might influence props. "Usually?" Read on!
We say “SIA usually highlights statistical trends” because this week was like none other in the league. It was the final lap toward the trade deadline on Thursday, Feb. 9, and several teams changed looks in considerable, potentially season-altering fashion.
As such, rather than dive into the typical statistics, NBA Best Bets will look towards the future, both near and far, in the aftermath of some of this year’s biggest deals that closed before the deadline. Don’t forget to check out our NBA odds for the games, player props, and NBA futures.
Phoenix Rising
This one might have had people spit out their morning coffee in surprise. Late Wednesday night, the Phoenix Suns acquired superstar and two-time champion Kevin Durant from the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Mikal Bridges (whom we discussed on a recent edition of Best Bets), Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, and multiple first-round draft picks. It sounds like a lot, and it is, but the NBA is known for teams completely changing their fates via the acquisition of one megastar. That’s just how it goes. Also, we’re not talking about just any hot commodity. This is KD.
The trade comes at a critical moment in Phoenix’s campaign. Coach Monty Williams has had to juggle considerable challenges, from a slightly awkward relationship with star centre Deandre Ayton, to both Chris Paul and Devin Booker missing significant play time due to injuries. As such, the squad that was two games away from winning it all in 2021 and was the NBA’s best regular season ensemble a year ago currently sits fifth in a highly congested Western Conference. 30-26 is nothing to write home about, but when considering that they’re only four games out of second place, there is still plenty of hope. Now, with a healthy Booker, Ayton playing terrific ball lately, and one of the league’s most sensational scorers in KD, the team is in an excellent position to make a push, even though Durant isn’t 100 per cent healthy to play just yet. There is no reason to think their 21st ranked offence won’t improve.
NBA 22/23 - Western Conference - Winner
Brooklyn Safety Net?
In late December and early January, fans and the media had taken notice of Brooklyn’s rise in the standings. The coaching switch from Steve Nash to Jacque Vaughn translated to much stouter defensive play, and after Kyrie Irving’s public relations fiasco, he returned not only level-headed but playing terrific ball. Even Ben Simmons was integrating himself into the lineup, albeit slowly. Now, in a four-day span, both Kyrie and KD are gone.
While the week has surely been a terrible blow to Nets fans, the lineup has enough pieces to prevent the sky from falling or the floor from crumbling beneath their feet. It seems unlikely that Brooklyn will continue to climb the standings though. They sit fifth in the East with a solid 32-22 record. Miami has also played better lately and has the experience to make a push. The Nets will benefit from Mikal Bridges excellent form and Cam Johnson (when healthy). It remains to be seen just what impact Dorian Finney-Smith and Spencer Dinwiddie will have. The future draft picks are what made their week interesting. As for their current campaign, they should be able to hold the fort to finish in fifth, maybe sixth, with a first-round playoff exit looking probable.
NBA 22/23
A Trade Befitting of a Maverick
From playing with one superstar in Brooklyn to doing so with another in Dallas. Kyrie Irving’s future in New York State looked dubious when considering that contract negotiations had not developed the way he had hoped. What better way to solve that issue than by joining forces with Luka Doncic?
Luka is beloved by many and solidified his mark on the NBA last year when he proved himself in the playoffs, guiding the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals. His efforts against the top-seeded Suns in the second round were arguably what assuaged lingering doubts about his big-game capabilities. On the flip side, the question mark surrounding the Texan outfit (one we brought up in our Kyrie trade props article) was “who else can play with Luka?” Dallas will now be one of the most difficult teams to defend in one-on-one situations. Both Doncic and Irving have magical abilities to drive to the basket and make highlight-reel-worthy shots. Ironically, like the Suns, they too are 30-26 in the West. Who will finish the season better? Phoenix has more depth.
NBA 22/23 - Western Conference - Winner
Smooth Jazz, Lake Show, or Wolf Pack?
Lost in the hubbub of the Irving and Durant trades was a three-way deal involving Utah, the Lakers, and Minnesota. Now former Timberwolf D’Angelo Russell, who once wore purple and gold, will adorn those colours once more. Malik Beasley joins him, as does Jarred Vanderbilt from the Jazz. Mike Conley is no longer in Utah but rather Minnesota. The biggest piece, if mostly due to reputation, is Russell Westbrook heading to Utah with a 2027 first-round draft taking the plane with him.
Three-way trades can be tricky to unpack under regular circumstances. Here we have a case of three teams in the same conference, each of which either sits just inside a playoff spot or is not too far out and aspires to make a run (The Timberwolves are eighth, Jazz 10th, Lakers 13th). Very intriguing. Just for Westbrook’s play since last year, it feels like the Jazz got the short end of the stick. It also feels like L.A. reaped the best rewards, predominantly to keep the offence humming, less so to improve the defence. Minnesota gets a strong veteran in Conley to support Anthony Edwards and give a boost whilst Karl-Anthony Towns remains out of the lineup. At worst, the Timberwolves should remain where they are in the West, but the Jazz could drop and the Lakers rise.