Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Prediction, NBA Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated May 26, 2022

The Golden State Warriors have the Mavericks on the ropes as they head home to host Dallas for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday.

Dallas
52-30
AT
May 26, 2022, 9:00 PM ET
Chase Center
Golden State
53-29
Pointspread +6.5 -107
Moneyline +227
Over / Under o +215

35%

Betting Action

65%

Pointspread -6.5 -113
Moneyline -274
Over / Under u +215

35%

Betting Action

65%

The Dallas Mavericks have avoided a sweep against the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, but the Warriors are 7-point home favourites on the NBA odds for Game 5 back at home Thursday to end the series.

Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA Playoffs Betting Odds

Just one note here because I believe this will be the last game of the Western Conference Finals: Golden State will have home-court advantage against either Boston (probably the opponent) or Miami in the NBA Finals. The Warriors finished with the same record as the Heat but swept the regular-season series and finished with a better record than the Celtics. Game 1 of the NBA Finals is June 2, so the Dubs could get plenty of rest with a win Thursday. Steph Curry is currently the -130 favourite to be Finals MVP. Teammate and Toronto native Andrew Wiggins is +3866.

With Golden State up 3-1, the Warriors are -2500 on the updated series line (were -10000) and the Mavericks +861 (were +1199). That it ends Thursday is -345 with Warriors in six at +544, in seven at +692 and Dallas completing the first-ever comeback from 3-0 down win a series at +1532.

Dallas Mavericks

We projected Dallas to win Game 4 because it was probably the team’s final home game of the season and the Warriors had letdowns in similar road situations in Round 1 vs. Denver and Round 2 vs. Memphis. None of the games in this series have been all that competitive and neither was Tuesday’s, which Dallas won 119-109 – although the Mavs did see a 29-point lead cut to single digits fairly late, which forced Coach Jason Kidd to reinsert some of his starters when he was hoping their night was over.

Star Luka Doncic was only 10-for-26 shooting but led his team in scoring (30 points), rebounds (14) and assists (nine). Doncic got some much-needed help from role players like Dorian Finney-Smith with 23 points (nine in Game 3), Reggie Bullock with 18 (zero in Game 3) and Maxi Kleber with 13 (zero in Game 3. Dallas finally shot well from three-point range, hitting 20-for-34, and won the battle of the boards for the first time in the series.

Golden State Warriors

We don’t want to say the Warriors didn’t care about Game 4 with a 3-0 lead, but they looked like they were going through the motions in trailing by 29 after three before making the score respectable. Curry led with 20 points, but no one else had more than 17. It was his 100th career playoff game with at least 20, becoming the 16th player in league history with triple digits.

As we noted above with the Mavs, Golden State had dominated the boards in the first three – and still leads combined 183-143 – but lost that statistic in Game 4. Forward Otto Porter, a key reserve, was out with an injury and it’s not clear if he will play Game 5. Golden State is 8-0 at home in these playoffs, one shy of the franchise-record streak of nine straight home wins in the 2017 postseason. The Dubs finished off the first two series this year at home. They are 12-4 in Game 5s since 2015.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Mavericks vs. Warriors?

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